Self-Driving Cars with Full Autonomy May Still Be Over 10 Years Away

An article in Forbes warns that fully autonomous cars are not exactly around the corner yet. Full autonomy refers to level 5, that is, full robotic driving in the stages of autonomous driving defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers. At level 5, the car can autonomously take a passenger from anywhere to anywhere at any time under any circumstances (including darkness, snow, ice, etc.). Current self-driving cars are still at level 2 where drivers must be ready to take control when the car cannot handle the situation on its own.  The Forbes article cites Gill Pratt, Toyota’s executive technical adviser, who has stated that to achieve full autonomy, the on-road reliability of autonomous cars needs to be measured in trillions of miles. Today, the industry is measuring on-road reliability in millions of miles. In other words, one million times better reliability is needed.

Ford plans a level 4 autonomous vehicle by 2021. At level 4, cars drive themselves most of the time, except for conditions such as extreme weather.

Andrew Moore, dean of Carnegie Mellon University’s School of Computer Science estimates that fully autonomous in-town driving will not be available until 2028.

Source: Warning: Driverless Cars Are Farther Than They Appear, http://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2016/09/28/warning-driverless-cars-are-farther-than-they-appear/#1648a67017de