Saturday, May 20, 2017

Why Is 5G Needed?

The reasons why 5G is needed include the following:

  • The demand for high data speed and large network coverage is continuing to increase [MAM]. Today’s networks are not able to support the expected multi-gigabyte throughput requirements of the next generation services (e.g., VR, AR and 360 video). Early 5G deployments are expected to be driven by eMBB (enhanced Mobile Broadband) and FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) [ER-2].
  • Mobile data traffic is expected to grow significantly [MAM]. Cisco expects it to grow sevenfold from 2016 to 2021 [Cisco]. So far, the increase in the amount of data sent over mobile networks has been driven mostly by consumer demand for video, and increasing business and consumer use of cloud services. Other data-intensive applications are expected to emerge, such as VR, AR, 360 degree video, holographic transmission, ultra-HD (or even 8K) video and haptic feedback applications. Because of this, we will be needing new capacity in the form of new spectrum, small cells, improvements to the core wireless technologies, and innovation in the mobile network in general [GSA].
  • Growing M2M/IoT communication in organizations [IA, MAM] and growing number of connected devices [5GF]. Whereas LTE has been driven by rapid increase in the number of devices and dynamic access to information, 5G is expected to be driven largely by IoT applications [Cisco]. 5G has the potential to become a universal enabler for IoT [ALT]. IoT is expected to be the top 5G use case in the long term [IHS]. Various industry applications such as autonomous driving, distant learning, video conferencing, telemedicine and AR will require higher network speed and put considerable demands on the network [IA].
  • Massive Machine Type Communications (M-MTC or Massive IoT). Some of the massive IoT applications can be handled by LTE networks. However, it is foreseen that there will be a need to be able to handle much larger numbers of connections (i.e., higher device density) efficiently, including handling them in the signaling networks. This creates the need for the development of new networks that can scale more easily [GSA]. 5G will support a connection density of one million devices per square kilometer, which is ten times higher than what LTE supports [EOC].
  • Critical IoT applications like connected cars, industrial automation and remote surgery will require extreme reliability and extremely low latency from the network. Some of these applications will require step changes in network performance. Their extreme needs cannot be fulfilled even by evolved forms of current networks (that is, LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro) [GSA]. In industrial settings, 5G has the potential to replace specialist networks and dedicated protocols that have been often used to deliver applications, and will bring a lower-cost ubiquitous cellular network and standardized modules and components [GSA].
  • Limitations of today’s mobile networks regarding high dependency on the mobile core and centralized resource placement, as well as scalability limitations, transport inefficiency and inability to cope with very low latencies [ALT].
  • Previous mobile network generations lack the flexibility and efficiency to support the broad diversity of use cases (ranging from massive IoT to streaming of VR content from the cloud) and device requirements that 5G is expected to be able to support [ALT].
  • Verizon has stated that revenue generated from fixed wireless services (FWA) alone justifies the investment required for a 5G network [AM]. The operators who are interested in 5G fixed wireless are those that have not already invested in Next-Generation Access (NGA) sub-loop infrastructure. These include large mobile-first operators, FTTC (Fiber to the Cabinet) incumbents that have not upgraded their physical infrastructure beyond the cabinet, and new entrants. The first main attraction of 5G FWA is the speed at which it can be rolled out. The operator still has to deploy some level of FTTN (Fiber-to-the-Node) but will not have to install the final connections to subscribers or fiber in Multiple Dwelling Units (MDUs). The second main benefit is that the infrastructure built up for 5G fixed wireless makes 5G mobile wireless, which will be introduced later, a manageable incremental cost.
  • According to IHS, ultra-low latency will be the top 5G upgrade driver, followed by ultra-high bandwidth throughput and increasing network capacity [IHS-2]. 
  • Infrastructure for smarty city development is expected to require enhanced mobile network performance capabilities [IA]
  • 77.8% of the respondents to GSMA’s 2017 mobile industry survey expect the first commercial deployment of 5G to have happened in their market at the latest by the end of 2020 [MWL]. The study indicates fast 5G development followed by rapid roll-out. 70.9% of the respondents said that the speed and throughput of 5G are necessary. Only 25.5% felt that the capabilities of LTE are sufficient. Only 3.6% argued that 5G is not necessary.
  • Ovum believes that 5G will be adopted faster than 4G due to the following reasons [LI]: stronger service provider commitment, larger installed base of 5G devices, fiercer competition among vendors (Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson, ZTE, etc.) that have more experience now than back in the days when 4G was launched, fiercer competition among hardware manufacturers, and larger demand for IoT/M2M applications and services.

References



[AM] The investment case for 5G mobile is more distant without fixed wireless, http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Comments/5G-fixed-case-Aug2016-RDTW0-RDCS0/ 

[Cisco] Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2016–2021 White Paper, http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/mobile-white-paper-c11-520862.html   



[GSA] The Road to 5G: Drivers, Applications, Requirements and Technical Development, http://www.huawei.com/minisite/5g/img/GSA_the_Road_to_5G.pdf

[IA] 5G technology market set to grow from 2016 to 2023 - report finds, http://www.information-age.com/5g-market-expected-grow-123462993/

[IHS] The 5G economy: How 5G technology will contribute to the global economy, https://www.qualcomm.com/documents/ihs-5g-economic-impact-study

[IHS-2] IHS Technology 5G Strategies, Global Service Provider Survey, https://tools.ext.nokia.com/asset/200835

[LI] Ovum forecasts that there will be 24.5 million 5G subscriptions worldwide at the end of 2021 for mobile and fixed broadband services. This compares to 225,000 4G subscriptions at the end of 2010, the second year after the launch of the first 4G network, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5g-adoption-faster-than-any-previous-technology-dimitrios-xydias

[MAM] 5G Technology Market worth 89.0 Million Subscriptions by 2022, http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/5g-technology.asp

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