The Edge of the Cloud - 5G Technology Blog

Saturday, June 3, 2017

5G Forecasts – The Past, Present and Future: 2008 – 2039 (Starting from LTE)

In this post, we will go through various 5G and pre-5G (LTE) related forecasts year-by-year, starting from 2008 and continuing all the way to 2039. This is a pretty massive amount of data, but the idea is that this post will serve as a "raw data set" for future blog posts for which I intend to process and analyze the data a bit for example by taking an average over the different forecasts for 5G subscriber growth for each year and showing that as a graph.

2008

Mobile subscriptions

There were 4,03 billion mobile subscriptions globally, up from 3,37 billion in 2007 [AR, WB].

Mobile infrastructure market

According to IHS Markit, the global mobile infrastructure market accounted for $41,5 billion in 2008 [IHS-5].
Dell’Oro Group says that HSPA was driving mobile infrastructure market growth [CN-2]. The market grew 5% over 2007.

Commercial LTE networks

There were no commercial LTE networks yet; the first ones were launched in late 2009.

Mobile phones and devices

Worldwide mobile phone sales surpassed 1,22 billion units in 2008, which was a 6% increase over 2007 sales [Gartner-2] The top two vendors were Nokia and Samsung. Their market shares were 38,6 and 16,3 percent, respectively.

2009

Mobile subscriptions

There were 4,636 billion mobile subscriptions globally [AR, WB].

Mobile infrastructure market

The first wave of LTE investment occurred in 2009 [ZTE].
According to IHS Markit, global LTE infrastructure spending accounted for $97 million [CN], whereas the total global mobile infrastructure market was around $38,6 billion [IHS-5].

Commercial LTE networks

The first commercial LTE network was launched in December 2009 [GSMA-2, FW-2].
By the end of 2009, there were 2 commercial LTE network deployments [GSA-2].

Mobile phones and devices

Worldwide mobile phone sales totaled 1,211 billion units in 2009, which was a 0.9% decline compared to 2008 [Gartner-3]. Smartphone sales reached 172,4 million units in 2009 with a 23,8% increase from 2008. The top two mobile phone manufacturers were Nokia and Samsung. Their market shares were 36,4 and 19,5 percent, respectively. Smartphone-focused vendors like Apple and RIM captured market share from other mobile phone manufacturers. Apple reached a 14.4% market share in the smartphone market.

2010

Mobile subscriptions

According to IHS, there were 612.000 LTE subscribers globally at the end of 2010 [FW-4].
According to Ovum, there were 225.000 4G subscriptions at the end of 2010 [LI].
According to the World Economic Forum, there were around 5,3 billion mobile subscriptions (all generations) in 2010 [WEF].
The World Bank reports 5,296 global cellular subscriptions [WB]. ITU puts the figure to 5,32 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

Global LTE infrastructure revenues accounted for $0,6 billion [MC-2].
According to IHS, global LTE infrastructure spending was $2 billion [EE, CN].
The size of the worldwide wireless infrastructure market was $38,98 billion [IHS-4].
Mind Commerce’s data shows that the global mobile infrastructure spending was around $42 or $45 billion in 2010 [JS, MC-3].

Commercial LTE networks

There were 16 live LTE networks globally [GSMA, GSA-2]

2011

Mobile subscriptions

According to IDATE, there were 9 million LTE connections globally at the end of 2011 [AF]. Mind Commerce’s puts the figure to 7 million [MC] and IHS to 13,2 million [FW-4].
According to the World Economic Forum, there were around 6 billion mobile subscriptions in 2011 [WEF]. ITU puts the figure to 5,89 billion [WB]. Yet another figure is 5,962 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

LTE infrastructure sales accounted for $2.1 billion based on data from Mind Commerce [MC] or $4,3 billion based on data from IHS [EE].
The size of the worldwide mobile infrastructure market was $42.5 billion [IHS-4].
According to MindCommerce, the global market for wireless network infrastructure was around $44 [MC-3] or $46 billion [JS].

Commercial LTE networks

Around 30 commercial LTE networks had been launched by the end of 2011 [CS-3].
According to TeleGeography, the figure was slightly higher, 39 [TG-2].
Mind Commerce says that 38 operators had launched LTE networks [MC].
GSMA’s data shows that there were 45 global live LTE networks by the end of 2011 [GSMA].
5G America’s view is that there were 51 commercial LTE deployments by the end of 2011 [5GA-2].

Other

The market worth of the global LTE market was $19,1 billion in 2011 according to Mind Commerce [MC] or $5,95 billion according to Transparency Market Research [TMR]
LTE service revenues accounted for $15 billion [MC].
According to Strategy Analytics, LTE ARPU reached its peak level and was around $67 per month [Tele-3]. Strategy Analytics expects LTE ARPU to decline to $11 per month by 2022.

2012

Mobile subscriptions

There were 80 million LTE subscriptions globally at the end of 2012 [GSMA-3], or 92,3 million if one believes IHS [FW-4]. 5G America’s data shows 72 million LTE connections at the end of 2012 [5GA-2]. GSA reports 76 million LTE subscriptions by Q4 2012 [GSA-7].
Total global wireless subscribers hit 6 billion in 2012 [BW-2]
According to GSMA, there were 6,514 billion mobile subscriptions at the end of 2012 [GSMA-5].
According to the World Economic Forum, there were around 6,4 billion mobile subscriptions in 2012 [WEF]. ITU’s data shows 6,261 billion mobile subscriptions [WB]. Areppim's data shows 6,411 billion subscriptions [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

The size of the LTE infrastructure market was $3,9 billion in 2012 [CRT, IMH].
According to Visiongain, global spending on LTE infrastructure totaled $10,84 billion in 2012 [VG]. IHS's estimate is $8,7 billion [EE].
The global market for LTE (not only infrastructure but also everything else) was valued at $10,47 billion in 2012 [TMR].
The global mobile infrastructure market reached $45,5 billion by the end of 2012 [TP].
According to MindCommerce, the global market for wireless network infrastructure was around $50 billion [JS].

Commercial LTE networks

Around 100 commercial LTE networks had been launched by the end of 2012 [CS-3]. GSA puts the figure to 145 [BW-2] and GSMA to 138 [GSMA].
5G America’s data shows there were 139 commercial LTE deployments by the end of 2011 [5GA-2].

Other

South Korea became the first country in the world to surpass 100% wireless broadband penetration [BW-2].

2013

Mobile subscriptions

There were 210 million LTE subscriptions globally at the end of 2013 [ER-4, GSMA-3]. According to 4G Americas, the figure was 229,7 million [DW]. GSA reports 212 million LTE subscriptions by Q4 2013 [GSA-7].
According to Ericsson, there were 6,8 billion worldwide mobile subscriptions at the end of 2013 [ER-4]. GSMA reports the same figure [SR].
Also according to the World Economic Forum, there were around 6,8 billion mobile subscriptions in 2013 [WEF]. ITU’s data shows 6,662 billion mobile subscriptions [WB]. Areppim's data shows 6,835 billion subscriptions [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

Infonetics’ estimate is that the size of the global LTE infrastructure market was around $13 billion in 2013 [TL-3]. Gartner puts the figure to $10,7 billion [SS].
According to SNS Research, the size of the global mobile infrastructure market was $52 billion in 2013, whereas Visiongain reports that the market size was $47 billion [WT].
According to MindCommerce, the global market for wireless network infrastructure was around $54 billion [JS]. According to Infonetics, the figure was $42,12 billion [BTR].

Commercial LTE networks

Around 275 commercial LTE networks had been launched by the end of 2013 [CS-3]. According to GSMA, the figure was 253 [GSMA]. 5G America’s estimate from August 2013 is 250 [GSA-2].

Mobile phones and devices

According to TrendForce, 286 million LTE devices were shipped in 2013 [TN-2].

Mobile traffic

According to Ericsson, data traffic per smartphone was 0,75 GB/month in 2013 [ER-4].

The first 5G discussions started. In October 2013, NTT DoCoMo got attention by discussing the possibility of rolling out 5G in time for the Tokyo Olympics in 2020 [IHS-2]. South Korea set a target for pre-commercial 5G (or, in reality, more like 4.5G) for the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in 2018.

2014

Mobile subscriptions

There were 500 million LTE subscriptions globally at the end of 2014 [ER-3, GSMA-3], or 480 million according to IHS [ZTE].
GSA reports 506 million LTE subscriptions by Q4 2014 [GSA-7].
According to Ericsson, there were 7,1 billion worldwide mobile subscriptions in 2014 [ER-4].
GSA reports that there were around 7,2 billion mobile subscriptions at the end of 2014 [SR].
According to the World Economic Forum, there were around 7,1 billion mobile subscriptions in 2014 [WEF]. ITU’s data shows 7,008 billion mobile subscriptions [WB]. Areppim puts the figure to 7,2623 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

The size of the global LTE infrastructure market was around $22,5 billion [CS].
The global mobile infrastructure revenue was $46,8 billion [CS]. LTE alone pushed it up 10% over 2013 largely due to China Mobile’s massive TDD LTE deployment. LTE revenue grew 69% from 2013.
According to MindCommerce, the global market for wireless network infrastructure was around $54 billion [JS].
Market Reports Hub estimates that the global wireless network infrastructure market remained flat in 2014 compared to 2013 levels, thus accounting for $52 billion [ST].
China Mobile alone deployed 570.000 LTE eNodeBs in 2014 [CS-3].
A total of 1,036 million LTE eNodeBS were shipped globally [ZTE].

Commercial LTE networks

More than 325 commercial LTE networks had been launched by the end of 2014 [CS-3]. The corresponding figure from IHS is 360 commercial LTE networks in 124 countries. According to GSMA, the figure was 361 [GSMA].
There were 49 commercially available LTE-Advanced networks around the world [CS].

Mobile phones and devices

According to TrendForce, 383 million LTE devices were shipped in 2014 [TN-2].
Gartner says that over 0,45 billion LTE devices were shipped in 2014 [CIAJ].

Mobile traffic

Ericsson reports that data traffic per smartphone was 1,05 GB/month in 2014 [ER-4].

Other

According to ABI Research, LTE-Advanced covered its first 100 million people worldwide, four years after its inception [CS].

2015

Mobile subscriptions

There were 1,07 billion LTE subscriptions globally at the end of 2015 [ER-2, GSMA-3], or 1,102 billion according to GSA [GSA-3]. 5G Americas puts the figure to 1,1 billion [5GA-3].
GSA reports 1,102 billion LTE subscriptions by Q4 2015 [GSA-7].
5G Americas’ data show that there were 3.6 billion GSM subscriptions and 2.2 billion HSPA connections at the end of 2015 [5GA-3].
Ericsson reports that there were 7,3 billion worldwide mobile subscriptions [ER-2].
According to GSMA, there were around 7,6 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2015 [SR].
According to the World Economic Forum, there were around 7.4 billion mobile subscriptions at the end of 2015 [WEF]. ITU’s data shows 7,194 billion mobile subscriptions [WB]. Areppim puts the figure to 7,5775 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

The global LTE infrastructure market peaked at $25.9 billion [CS-2, TL-4].
Mobile network equipment market was $40,6 billion (2.8% of the entire global telecom market) [5GF] or $43 billion according to IHS Markit [TTN].
The worldwide mobile infrastructure revenue totaled $48 billion [GSMA].
According to SNS Research, global 2G, 3G and 4G wireless infrastructure revenues were $65 billion in 2015 [TL-7].
Based on Market Report Hub’s CAGR estimate for the global mobile network infrastructure market, the market accounted for $50,96 billion in 2015 [ST].

Commercial LTE networks

GSA estimated that over 450 commercial LTE networks would be launched by the end of 2015 [CS]. According to IHS, the figure was 480 [FW-5]. GSMA puts the figure to 484 live LTE networks in 158 countries [GSMA]. GSA’s data shows around 460 LTE networks and 100 LTE-Advanced networks [GSA].

Mobile phones and devices

According to CCS Insight, the mobile phone market peaked at 2 billion units per year in 2015 [MWL-2].
TrendForce estimates that 610 million LTE devices were shipped in 2015 [TN-2].
Gartner reports that nearly 0,8 billion LTE devices were shipped in 2015 [CIAJ].

Mobile traffic

According to Ericsson, data traffic per smartphone was 1,4 GB/month in 2015 [ER-2].

Other

The telecom service market was $965,3 billion (66,6% of the entire global telecom market) [5GF].
The global telecom market was $1444,8 billion in 2015 [5GF].
Global mobile data revenue was $386 billion [PA].
Terminal market was $442,7 billion (30.6% of the entire global telecom market) [5GF].
In Japan, almost 80% of mobile service revenue came from data services [CS]. The US was approaching 60%.

2016

Mobile subscriptions

There were 1,74 billion LTE subscriptions globally at the end of 2016 [ER-2, GSMA-3], or 1,92 billion according to Ovum and GSA [GSA-3, GSA-7]. Cisco puts the figure to 2,072 billion [Cisco]. LTE subscriptions accounted for 25,1% of all mobile subscriptions globally [GSA-3].
5G Americas’ data shows that there were 1,9 billion LTE subscriptions at the end of 2016 (25% of all subscriptions) [5GA-3]. The number of GSM subscriptions was 3 billion (41%). HSPA held a 30% share with 2,3 billion subscriptions.
In 2016, there were 400 million wide-area (e.g., 3GPP, Sigfox, LoRA, Ingenu) IoT and 5,2 billion short-range (e.g., Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or ZigBee) IoT devices [ER-2]. LTE’s share of cellular IoT devices was around 5% [ER-2].
Mobile broadband connections (3G and 4G) accounted for 55% of total mobile connections [GSMA].
65% of the world’s population had a mobile subscription resulting in 4,8 billion unique subscribers [GSMA].
According to Ericsson, there were 7,5 billion worldwide mobile subscriptions [ER-2]. The corresponding figure from 5G Americas is 7,6 billion [5GA-3].
According to GSMA, there were 7,882 billion mobile subscriptions at the end of 2016 [GSMA-5]. Areppim puts the figure to 7,8295 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

The size of the worldwide market for end-to-end LTE network infrastructure was $20,9 billion [BR].
On a year-over-year basis, the global macrocell mobile infrastructure market declined by 14%, confirming that the market has entered the post-LTE-peak era. LTE was down by 16% year-over-year [CS-2].
IHS Markit expects the LTE market to decline at a CAGR of -12.4% from 2015 to 2021 [CS-2, TTN]. Based on this estimate, the size of the global LTE infrastructure market accounted for $22,7 billion in 2016.
Gartner’s estimate is that the size of the global mobile network equipment market was $42,9 billion in 2016 [5GF]. IHS reports $43 billion, down from $48 billion in 2015 (a CAGR of -10%) [CS-2].
Operators had invested $1,2 trillion in capex since 2010. However, mobile capex levels fell by 6% compared to 2015 [GSMA]. Over the medium term, GSMA expects that capex levels will continue to decline but at a slower rate.
No true commercial NB-IoT networks where customers would be charged for usage were not yet launched in 2016 [TL-2].
The 5G equipment market is expected grow at a CAGR of 32.06% during the period 2016-2020 [BW, MW].
Based on Market Report Hub’s CAGR estimate for the global mobile network infrastructure market, the market accounted for $49,9 billion in 2016 [ST].
Small cell, carrier Wi-Fi, C-RAN, and DAS investments were estimated to account for nearly $13 billion by the end of 2016 [TL].
SNS Research expected mobile operators to invest over $7 billion in C-RAN infrastructure rollouts by the end of 2016 [SNS-4]. SNS expects the market to grow at a CAGR of nearly 20% between 2016 and 2020.
Reports and Reports expected the global 2G, 3G, and 4G wireless infrastructure revenues to be $65 billion in 2016 [SP]. Small cell and carrier Wi-Fi equipment were expected to represent a market worth of $3 billion in 2016.

Commercial LTE networks

There were 580 live LTE networks in 188 countries [GSMA].
GSA expected around 540 commercial LTE networks and around 160 LTE-Advanced networks by the end of 2016 [GSA].

Mobile phones and devices

Business Insider reports that there were 6,6 billion IoT devices in 2016 [BI-2].
Gartner expected that over 0,95 billion LTE devices would be shipped in 2016 [CIAJ].

Mobile data traffic

According to Ericsson, data traffic per smartphone was 1,9 GB/month in 2016 [ER-2].
Global mobile data traffic was 7 exabytes per month in 2016 [Cisco].

According to Gartner, there has never been as much emphasis on investing in the next generation of networks so far in advance of settled standards as there has been with 5G [Gartner].
The work plan for 3GPP Release 15, which includes the first set of 5G specifications was ratified at the plenary meeting of the TSG#72 (Technical Specification Group) 3GPP working group in June 2016 [ARC]. 5G standardization work by TSG SA2 (Technical Specification Group System Architecture) started in December 2016.

Other

According to CCS Insight, 1,42 billion smartphones were shipped in 2016 [MWL]. Smartphones accounted for almost 75% of the mobile phone market.
Nearly 60% of the worldwide population owned a mobile phone and used it at least once a month [EM].
SNS Research estimates that LTE service revenues accounted for over $600 Billion in 2016 [SNS-2, GNW-2]. The figure is further expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 5% until the end of 2020.
Total mobile revenues reached $1,05 trillion (up by 2,2% from 2015) [GSMA].
The global Telecom Infrastructure Services (TIS) global market declined 0,3% year-over-year to $96,2 billion in 2016 [TBR]. The TIS market entered a challenging period for the next three years (2017-2019) as mobile broadband investment declines, legacy infrastructure is increasingly decommissioned and NFV/SDN reduces demand for product-attached services. The market is expected to continue declining until 2020, which is when 5G deployments will return it back to growth.
According to Analysys Mason, in 2016, revenue from IoT accounted for less than 1% of most operators’ total revenue [TL-2].
RnRMarketResearch expected LTE service revenues to account for over $600 billion in 2016 [PRNW-3].
T-Mobile Netherlands launched an NB-IoT network in five locations across the country in October 2016 [EII-2].
According to Cisco 52% (38,4 exabytes) of the global Internet traffic was on CDNs in 2016 [QZ].
Qualcomm demonstrated the first over-the-air connection of MulteFire in October 2016 [EII-3].

2017

Mobile subscriptions

GSA expects 2,457 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2017 [GSA-7].
GSMA expects there to be 2,28 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2017 [GSMA-3].
ABI Research estimates that there were roughly 2 billion people with LTE subscriptions in March 2017 [PCW].
Ovum forecasts 1,9 billion LTE subscriptions (24.5% of all mobile subscriptions) by the end of 2017 [TL-5].
ABI Research estimates that LTE's share of all mobile subscriptions was 30% in 2017 [ME-3]. Gigabit LTE will see nearly two million subscriptions by the end of 2017.
5G Americas predicts there will be 2,5 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2017 [TL-6].
GSMA forecasts around 8,2 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2017 [SR].
According to the World Economic Forum, there will be around 8 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2017 [WEF]. Areppim's estimate is 8,0274 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

IHS predicts that the global LTE infrastructure market will be around $17 billion in 2017 [TL-3, EL]. Another figure based on an IHS LTE infrastructure market CAGR estimate is $19,9 billion [TTN].
SNS Research expects that mobile operators will spend more than $250 Million on pre-standards 5G network rollouts by the end of 2017 [SNS].
Technavio forecasts that the 5G network equipment market will be $3.92 billion by the end of 2017 [AMG].
Dell’Oro Group expects the total RAN market to decline in 2017 at a high single-digit rate, stabilize during 2018-2020, and grow again in 2021 [DO].
Gartner estimates that the size of the global mobile network equipment market will reach $46,7 billion by the end of 2017 [5GF].
MindCommerce expects the global market for wireless network infrastructure to be around $50 billion in 2017 [JS].
SNS Research expects that due to a decline in macrocell RAN infrastructure spending, the wireless network infrastructure market will remain relatively flat between 2017 and 2020, with annual investments of over $61 billion [FOX].
Based on Market Reports Hub’s CAGR estimate for the global mobile network infrastructure market, the market could account for $48,9 billion in 2017 [ST].

Commercial LTE and 5G networks

As of January 30, 2017, 581 commercial LTE networks had been launched [CS-2]. According to IHS Markit, all indicators point to a year of LTE decline in 2017 as a result of diminishing rollouts worldwide.
GSA expects around 590 commercial LTE networks and around 230 LTE-Advanced networks by the end of 2017 [GSA]. The latest update to the figures is 646 commercially launched LTE networks and 195 LTE-Advanced or LTE Advanced Pro networks by the end of 2017 [GSA-4]. According to GSA, 774 operators were investing in LTE in 202 countries at the end of March 2017. In May 2017, 801 operators were investing in LTE [GSA-5].
ABI Research expects more than 15 operators to have gigabit LTE by the end of 2017 [PCW].
By the end of 2017, over 200 carriers are likely to be offering LTE-A across some of their network, and over 20 should have LTE-A Pro networks [Deloitte].
A few (around 5 or less) operators will have introduced early commercial 5G services of some sort [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.
SK Telecom is planning to perform a large-scale pre-commercial 5G deployment by the end of 2017 [LR]. In early May, KT, which is South Korea’s second largest mobile operator, said it is in the final stages of testing a new pre-standard 5G trial network [MWL-3]. Also Verizon and Telia have announced plans to launch pre-standard 5G services as early as 2017 [TA-3].
AT&T and Verizon aim to begin 5G fixed wireless rollouts during 2017 [FW]. In January 2017, Verizon revealed that it had installed pre-standard 5G equipment for fixed wireless services in more than 10 cities in the US [FW].
According to GSA, by April 2017, 19 operators had commercially launched some aspect of LTE-Advanced Pro [TMN, GSA-6]. These included 4 NB-IoT networks (Telus Canada, T-Mobile Netherlands, Telia Norway, and Vodafone Spain) and 12 LTE-M networks. 40 further NB-IoT networks are planned to be launched. A further 26 operators were trialling, deploying or planning LTE-Advanced Pro networks exhibiting multiple 3GPP Release 13 features such as those related to carrier aggregation, modulation scheme, MIMO, latency, and MCPTT (Mission-Critical Push-to-Talk).
Japan started a trial of a 5G system in May 2017 in Tokyo as well in rural areas [RCR-3]. The trials are expected to continue for three years. Commercial launches of 5G are expected to happen in 2020.

Specification of 5G NR started in 3GPP TSG RAN in March 2017 [ARC].
Strand Consult believes that in 2017, people are likely to recognize that most 5G services can run on 4G networks and therefore it is not necessary to deploy a specialized 5G network [Strand]. Strand Consult predicts that the change from 4G to 5G will not be as dramatic as from 3G to 4G, 2G to 3G, or 1G to 2G.
BMI Research notes that many stakeholders have their own specific interests hyping 5G [BMI]. These include creating a new revenue stream or to differentiate in the marketplace.
More risks and challenges for 5G are listed in an earlier blog post on The Edge of the Cloud blog.
A survey by TIA from March 2017 indicated that 26% of operators are planning to trial 5G by March 2019 [GNW-3]. Almost half of the surveyed operators expect to have made 5G investments as part of their capital expenditure budgets by the end of 2020. 33% of operator respondents expect they will offer commercial 5G services by 2020.

Mobile phones and devices

CCS Insight expects that 1,53 billion smartphones and 0,46 billion feature phones will be shipped in 2017 [CCS, ME-2].
Gartner expects that over 1,1 billion LTE devices will be shipped in 2017 [CIAJ].
Deutsche Telekom said in May 2017 that NB-IoT module costs were still far too high for its business customers [LR-4]. The module cost was between €10 and €15 rather than the €5 target that 3GPP and DT are aiming for. In June 2016 the cost of a Sigfox module was $2 and it is expected to fall to $0,50 by 2021.

Mobile data traffic

Cisco expects the global mobile data traffic to be 11 exabytes per month in 2017 [Cisco].

Other

LTE carries about 67% of all mobile traffic in 2017 [PCW].
ABI Research is forecasting that industrial manufacturing applications will generate more than $138 million in 2017 from cellular and satellite connectivity fees [5GA]. By the end of 2017, there will be 53 million IIoT connections. 25% of the new IIoT connections added during 2017 will be wireless.
3GPP will complete technical specifications for non-standalone 5G NR in Q4 2017 [BMI].
TBR predicts that the size of the global telecom infrastructure services market will decline to $95,1 billion (from $96,2 billion in 2016) [TBR].
TBR expects that operators and telecom vendors will be in 2017-2019 under pressure to engage in more consolidation to protect the revenue and profit pools of their traditional businesses while diversifying into new areas [TBR].
TBR predicts that professional services will be the fastest growing telecom services segment during 2017-2021 [TBR]. The growth is driven by operators’ need to pursue operations and business transformation. Product-attached services like deployment and maintenance spend will decline due to slowing down of mobile broadband deployments, legacy infrastructure being decommissioned, and cost savings from NFV, SDN, and cloud being realized. Demand for managed services is expected to stay robust. However, new large-scale managed network operation contracts are becoming increasingly difficult to find. Market share will concentrate increasingly around the largest telecom infrastructure services suppliers since they are expected to engage in M&A to boost capabilities especially in software and professional services.
Northstream predicts that NFV will take off in 2017 [Telco]. The adoption is driven by services like VoLTE, carrier cloud, Wi-Fi calling, service chaining, resource sharing and network slicing.
TBR predicts that most Tier 1 operators will adopt NFV and SDN in 2017 and 2018 [Telco]. Global enterprise SDN is expected to grow at a CAGR of 72% through 2020.
Analysys Mason expects that first customers paying for access to NB-IoT networks will appear in 2017 [TL-2]. Significant increases in the number of users are not expected until the end of year, as more modules become available and network coverage increases.
Global autonomous robot market is expected to be $33,6 billion in 2017 and reach $41,6 billion in 2025 [5GF].
Vodafone Netherlands activated its NB-IoT network in 20 locations across Netherlands in June 2017 [EII-2]. Earlier during the year, the operator conducted its first successful LTE-M test.
According to Cisco 57% (54 exabytes) of the global Internet traffic will be CDNs in 2017 [QZ].
Qualcomm expects to see initial lab trials of MulteFire by the end of the year and early 2018, with some field trials based on testing prototypes [EII-3].

2018

Mobile subscriptions

GSA expects 3,066 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2018 [GSA-7].
Ovum forecasts 2,4 billion LTE subscriptions (30% of all mobile subscriptions) by 2018 [TL-5].
GSMA expects that there will be 2,75 billion LTE connections by the end of 2018 [GSMA-3].
5G Americas predicts there will be 3,1 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2018 [TL-6].
IDATE forecasts that LTE subscriptions will reach 3 billion in 2018 [ID-2].
According to Ericsson, there will be over 9 billion mobile subscriptions globally by the end of the year [ER-7].
GSMA forecasts around 8,3 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2018 [SR].
Also the World Economic Forum expects around 8,3 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2018 [WEF]. Areppim's estimate is 8,1808 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

IHS Markit expects the global LTE infrastructure market to decline at a CAGR of -12.4% from 2015 to 2021 [CS-2]. Thus, the size of the market could be around $17,4 billion by the end of 2018.
Gartner estimates that the size of the global mobile network equipment market will reach $52,1 billion by the end of 2018 [5GF].
Technavio forecasts that the 5G network equipment market will reach $5.12 billion by the end of 2018 [AMG].
SNS Research predicts that global pre-standard 5G network investments will total at $<removed> billion in 2018 [SNS-3].
SNS Research expects that due to a decline in macrocell RAN infrastructure spending, the wireless network infrastructure market will remain relatively flat between 2017 and 2020, with annual investments of over $61 billion [FOX].
Based on Market Research Hub’s CAGR estimate for the global mobile network infrastructure market, the market will account for $47,96 billion in 2018 [ST].

Commercial LTE and 5G networks

A few (around 5 or less) operators will have introduced early commercial 5G services of some sort [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.
GSA predicts that around 630 operators will have introduced LTE networks [GSA].
GSA predicts that around 305 operators will have introduced LTE-Advanced networks [GSA].
In a survey done by TIA, 3% of the interviewed operators indicated that they plan to introduce a commercial 5G core and radio network at the latest by 2018 [SC].

3GPP will complete technical specifications for standalone 5G NR in Q2 2018 [BMI] which is when Release 15 will be complete [ARC].
According to Strategy Analytics, the first trial 5G handsets expected to emerge in 2018 are likely to suffer from issues such as short battery life, no 4G handover or unstable connectivity [TA-2].
AT&T has indicated that it is likely to be able to launch standards-based mobile 5G services as soon as late 2018 [TG].

Mobile phones and devices

CCS Insight expects that 1,64 billion smartphones and 0,38 billion feature phones will be shipped in 2018 [CCS].
Gartner expects that around 1,3 billion LTE devices will be shipped in 2018 [CIAJ].

Mobile data traffic

Cisco forecasts that the global mobile data traffic will be 17 exabytes per month in 2018 [Cisco].

Other

The global market for public safety networks is expected to reach $28,8 billion in 2018 and $43,2 billion in 2025 (a CAGR of 5,9%).
ABI Research expects LTE-Advanced coverage to reach 1 billion by the end of 2018, up from 100 million in 2014 [CS].
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market will diversify to personal and public use cases from military use cases. It will reach $4,8 billion in 2018 and $5,4 billion in 2025 [5GF].
TBR predicts that the size of the global telecom infrastructure services market will decline to $94,4 billion (from $95,1 billion in 2017) [TBR].
Cisco predicts that 61% (73 exabytes) of the global Internet traffic will be CDNs in 2018 [QZ].

2019

Mobile subscriptions

GSA expects 3,698 billion LTE subscriptions by 2019 [GSA-7].
Ovum forecasts 3 billion LTE subscriptions (35% of all mobile subscriptions) by 2019 [TL-5].
GSMA’s forecast is that there will be 3,21 LTE connections globally by the end of 2019 [GSMA-3].
5G Americas predicts there will be 3,7 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2019 [TL-6].
Ericsson expects 2,6 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2019 [ER-6].
Ericsson forecasts 9,3 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2019 [ER-6].
GSMA forecasts around 8,5 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2019 [SR].
The World Economic Forum expects around 8,6 billion mobile subscriptions by 2019 [WEF]. Areppim's estimate is 8,2983 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

Gartner estimates that the size of the global mobile network equipment market will reach $56,7 billion by the end of 2019 [5GF]. However, IHS Markit projects the global mobile infrastructure market to decline to $28,5 billion by 2019 [IHS-3].
Infonetics Research expects the mobile infrastructure market to drop by almost from nearly $47 billion in 2014 to $27 billion in 2019 [CS]. This is because the end of macrocell deployments is reached globally.
Based on Market Research Hub’s CAGR estimate for the global mobile network infrastructure market, the market will account for $47 billion in 2019 [ST].
SNS Research expects that due to a decline in macrocell RAN infrastructure spending, the wireless network infrastructure market will remain relatively flat between 2017 and 2020, with annual investments of over $61 billion [FOX].
IHS Markit’s forecast from 2015 for the size of the global LTE infrastructure market is around $12,5 billion [EL]. Based on a later CAGR estimate from IHS, the market size could be $15,3 billion [TTN]. In 2017, IHS expected the global LTE infrastructure market to decline at a CAGR of -12.4% from 2015 to 2021 [CS-2]. Thus, the size of the market could be around $16,63 billion by the end of 2019.
IHS Markit expects the global 5G mobile infrastructure revenue to be around $60 million [CS-2].
Technavio forecasts that the size of the 5G network equipment market will be $6,88 billion by the end of 2019 [AMG].
Based on SNS Research’s CAGR estimate, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $1,2 billion in 2019 [TL-9].
Markets and Markets expects that the size of the global 5G network infrastructure market will be around $1,16 billion in 2019 [GNW].
Based on Market Reports Center’s CAGR estimate for 5G network infrastructure, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $1,16 billion in 2019 [PRNW-4].
Gartner expects the global sales of routers and switches for telecom carriers to reach around $20 billion per year in 2019, which is 1,4 times the 2014 figure [CIAJ]
ZTE expects to see initial revenues from the sale of standardized 5G equipment in 2019 [RCR-2]. Higher revenues will come from 2020 onwards.

Commercial LTE and 5G networks

Around 7 operators will have introduced early commercial 5G services [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.
GSA said in April 2017 that 18 operators are committed to implementation based on pre-standards 5G technology by or before 2019 [TMN]. These include for example Etisalat, Telia, TIM and Verizon.
GSA predicts that around 660 operators will have introduced LTE networks [GSA].
GSA predicts that around 380 operators will have introduced LTE-Advanced networks [GSA].
South Korea plans to complete deployment of a commercial 5G network in the second half of 2019 [MWL-3]. KT in South Korea plans to launch commercial 5G services in 2019 [GSMA-4].
T-Mobile US has announced that it plans to start rolling out a 5G network in the US in 2019 [Reuters].

Mobile phones and devices

CCS Insight expects that 1,74 billion smartphones and 0,30 billion feature phones will be shipped in 2019 [CCS].
Gartner predicts that the number of LTE devices will reach 1,414 billion in 2019, which is three times the figure in 2014 [CIAJ].
Qualcomm is anticipating that the first 5G capable smartphones will be arriving commercially in 2019 [SA]. However, Strategy Analytics expects that first commercial 5G devices will arrive in 2020.
ZTE believes that by 2019 and 2020, it will have some commercial offering of 5G handsets [RCR-2].

Mobile data traffic

Cisco forecasts that global mobile data traffic will be 24 exabytes per month in 2019, up from 7 exabytes per month in 2016 [Cisco].

Other

BMI Research’s view is that demand for 5G will remain niche at launch since there is yet no real business case for 5G services [BMI].
5G will arrive in a number of phases [GSMA]. The pre-emptive phase will comprise Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) networks using mmWave spectrum (as exemplified by for instance Verizon). The first commercial 5G cellular networks will launch in late 2019 and early 2020. They will be built on evolved LTE (3GPP Release 15) and will offer increased performance. However, there will be a handful of pre-5G wireless networks including those linked to sporting events taking place ahead of the standardization date. 5G’s second phased, based on Release 16, will deliver mobile data over mmWave frequencies. 3GPP Release 16 will be completed in December 2019 [3GPP].
TBR predicts that the size of the global telecom infrastructure services market will decline to $94,1 billion (from $94,4 billion in 2018) [TBR].
Cisco predicts that 65% (97,8 exabytes) of the global Internet traffic will be CDNs in 2019 [QZ].

2020

Mobile subscriptions

Ovum forecasts 3,6 billion LTE subscriptions (42% of all mobile subscriptions) by 2020 [TL-5].
GSMA’s expectation is that compared to 2016, the number of LTE connections has increased a third [GSMA] and will amount to 3,63 billion globally [GSMA-3].
RnRMarketResearch expects 2,2 billion LTE connections by 2020 [MM].
IDATE forecasts that LTE subscriptions will reach a little less than 5 billion in 2020 [ID-2].
5G Americas predicts there will be 4,3 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2020 [TL-6].
GSA predicts 4,268 billion LTE subscriptions by December 2020 [GSA-7]. The figure is from March 2017. GSA’s earlier estimate, from March 2016, was 3,8 billion [GSA-2].
Juniper Research expects that the number of active LTE connections will exceed 3 billion globally by 2020 [TC].
GSMA estimates that 4G coverage will have reached 75% of the world’s population [GSMA]. 75% of all mobile connections will be 3G or 4G [GSMA]. However, 150 countries will still have 4G adoption at less than 30% of connections.
GSMA forecasts zero 5G connections and 8% coverage (as percentage of population) for 5G in 2020 [GSMA].
Cisco expects 2,3 million 5G connections in 2020 [Cisco]. The figure excludes M2M.
Strategy Analytics forecasts 2 million 5G connections in 2020 [PRNW-2]. The figure does not include vertical/industrial applications.
BMI Research predicts that there will be around 15 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2020 [BMI].
Parks Associates expects 17,2 million 5G consumer market subscriptions globally by the end of 2020 [PA].
GSMA expects 860 million new mobile subscribers compared to 2016, meaning that there will be 5,7 billion mobile subscribers (which corresponds to 75% of world’s population) [GSMA].
Huawei’s mLAB forecasts that the number of MBB users will double to 6,7 billion from 2015 to 2020 [Huawei].
Ericsson forecasts 9,2 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2020 [ER-4].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum is predicting 10,7 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2020 [UKS].
According to an extrapolation done by University of Surrey, there could be around 8,6 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2020 [SR].
GSMA forecasts 9,7 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2020 [GSMA-5].
The World Economic Forum expects around 8,9 billion mobile subscriptions by 2020 [WEF]. Areppim's estimate is 8,3876 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

GSMA expects that global mobile capex levels will return to growth in 2020 after continued decline since 2015 as operators in advanced telecom markets will begin to invest in 5G infrastructure [GSMA].
IHS Markit expects the global LTE infrastructure market to decline at a CAGR of -12,4% from 2015 to 2021 [CS-2]. Thus, the size of the market could be around $13,4 billion by the end of 2020.
Gartner forecasts that the worldwide market for end-to-end LTE network infrastructure will be $36,6 billion in 2020 and will account for 70% of all spending on mobile network infrastructure [BR].
ETRI Forum predicts that the size of the 5G network equipment market will be $1,04 billion in 2020 [5GF, 5GE].
Technavio forecasts that the 5G network equipment market will be $9,56 billion by the end of 2020 [AMG].
Based on Market Reports Center’s CAGR estimate for 5G network infrastructure, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $1,97 billion in 2020 [PRNW-4].
SNS Research expects LTE and 5G infrastructure investments to account for $32 billion in 2020 [GNW-2]. This includes spending on distributed macrocells, small cells, C-RAN architecture equipment, and mobile core solutions.
SNS Research expects that due to a decline in macrocell RAN infrastructure spending, the wireless network infrastructure market will remain relatively flat between 2017 and 2020, with annual investments of over $61 billion [FOX]. In 2015, the size of the market was $65 billion [NGC]. SNS expects a significant shift in investments towards small cells, C-RAN, DAS and carrier Wi-Fi infrastructure. These four submarkets together with their fronthaul and backhaul segments, are expected to account for over 50% of all wireless infrastructure spending by 2020.
Based on SNS Research’s CAGR estimate, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $2,0 billion in 2020 [TL-9].
SNS Research expects that global investments on C-RAN architecture networks could reach up to $14,5 billion per year by 2020, up from $7 billion in 2016 [SNS-4].
IHS forecasts that the size of the global mobile infrastructure market will be around $48 billion in 2020 [TL-8].
ETRI Industrial Strategy Research Lab estimates that the size of the global mobile network equipment market will be $60,2 billion in 2020 [5GF].
Accenture estimates that in the US, the network deployment build of 5G will involve 10 to 100 times more antenna locations than 4G or 3G [ACC].
Technavio predicts that there will be approximately 30,000 small cell nodes in the US by 2020 that handle LTE-Advanced and mobile 5G applications [BW].
ABI Research expects 8,5 million small cells to be deployed globally by 2020 [TTV].
According to ABI Research, large-scale telco cloud deployments will reach global critical mass after 2020, in parallel with the deployment for 5G. This is because 5G requires a new core network to enable network slicing and services geared toward different business verticals [WDO].
According to Markets and Markets, the global DAS market is expected to reach $9,18 billion by 2020. It will grow at a CAGR of 7,11% between 2015 and 2020 [TL]. Small cells, C-RAN, DAS, and carrier Wi-Fi infrastructure, together with their fronthaul and backhaul segments, will account for over 50% of all wireless network infrastructure spending by 2020.

Commercial LTE and 5G networks

GSA predicts that around 680 operators have introduced LTE networks by the end of 2020 [GSA].
GSA predicts that around 430 operators have introduced LTE-Advanced networks by the end 2020 [GSA].
SNS Research expects that over 150 LTE operators have deployed carrier aggregation technology by 2020 [GNW-2]. Over 50% of all LTE subscribers will be supported by LTE-Advanced networks.
Around 15 operators will have introduced early commercial 5G services [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.
NTT DoCoMo plans to launch commercial 5G services in 2020 [GSMA-4]. China Mobile plans to deploy 10.000 5G base stations by 2020 [CD]. In July 2016, major European operators published a 5G manifesto, which indicates a target of launching 5G in at least one city in each of the EU member states by 2020. Etisalat will launch a nationwide 5G network in time for Expo 2020 in the UAE.
In a survey done by TIA, 20% of the interviewed operators indicated that they plan to launch commercial 5G core and radio networks at the latest by 2020 [SC].
T-Mobile has announced that it targets full nationwide 5G coverage in the US by 2020 [TM]. To achieve this, T-Mobile plans to use its 600 MHz spectrum band, 200 MHz of spectrum in the 28/39 GHz bands, as well as mid-band spectrum [TM-2].
The Japanese government has set a goal of having 5G by the Tokyo Olympics in 2020 [CS]. Commercial launches of 5G are expected to happen in Japan in 2020 [RCR-3].

Mobile data traffic

Ericsson predicts that data traffic per smartphone will be 4,9 GB/month by 2020 [ER-4].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 5.3 GB/month [UKS].
Cisco forecasts that the global mobile data traffic will be 35 exabytes per month in 2020, up from 7 exabytes per month in 2016 [Cisco].

Smartphones and devices

CCS Insight expects that 1,82 billion smartphones and 0,23 billion feature phones will be shipped in 2020 [CCS].
Mobile phones with LTE are expected to account for 1,65 billion units in 2020 [MWL-2].

Other

The global telecom market is expected to grow to $1.757,6 billion in 2020 (from $1.444,8 billion in 2015; a CAGR of 3.9%) [5GF].
By 2020, the voice service market is forecast to decline at a CAGR of -4,9% from 2015 levels [GSMA]. The data service market will grow at a CAGR of 8,3%.
Global 5G service revenues will be $100 million according to Juniper Research [Juniper-1, EIT] or $26,4 billion if one trusts 5G Forum’s estimate [5GF].
According to SNS Research, LTE networks will generate nearly $800 billion in annual service revenue by 2020 [TL-7].
Over $6 billion will be spent on 5G R&D and trial investments between 2015 and 2020 [PRNW].
The total cost of 5G deployment in 28 EU member states will be approximately €56 billion in 2020 [EC]. 5G investment will lead to multiplier effects with a value of €141 billion. These effects are likely to create 2,3 million jobs in the EU member states
Parks Associates expects global mobile data revenue to reach $630 billion in 2020, up from $386 billion in 2015 [PA].
TBR expects SDN to make up nearly 40% (or $12,7 billion) of global enterprise network infrastructure revenue by 2020 [Telco].
TBR predicts that the size of the global telecom infrastructure services market will stay flat at $94,1 billion (compared to $94,1 billion in 2017) [TBR]
GE estimates that the Industrial Internet could be a $225 billion market by 2020 [5GA].
The M2M market will grow to $346,5 billion by 2020 from $135,7 billion in 2015.
Mobile cloud traffic ratio as a percentage of total mobile traffic is expected to increase from 35% in 2013 to 70% in 2020 [5GF]. Thus, most of 5G mobile services in 2020 will be consumed from the cloud.
The global market for systems for autonomous cars is expected to reach $189 billion in 2020 [GSMA].
Strategy Analytics expects 5G ARPU to be $50 per month [Tele-3]. LTE ARPU will be around $14 per month. 5G ARPU is not expected to ever reach the peak LTE ARPU levels (LTE ARPU peaked at around $67 per month in 2011).
South Korea is targeting 5% 5G penetration in 2020 [MWL-3].
Cisco predicts that 67% (127 exabytes) of the global Internet traffic will be CDNs by 2020 [QZ].

2021

Mobile subscriptions

Cisco’s forecast is 6,143 billion LTE connections by 2021 [Cisco].
Ericsson expects 4,1 billion LTE subscriptions by 2021 [ER-5].
5G Americas predicts there will be 4,7 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2021 [TL-6].
GSA predicts 4,709 billion LTE subscriptions by December 2021 [GSA-7].
GSMA forecasts 100 million 5G connections and 17% coverage [GSMA].
Cisco expects 25 million 5G connections by 2021. 5G’s share will be 0,2% of all mobile connections and 1.5% of all mobile data traffic [Cisco]. As a comparison, at the end of the second year after the commercial launch of LTE, 0,01% of connections were LTE [LI].
Ovum forecasts that there will be 24,5 million 5G subscriptions for mobile and fixed broadband services [LI]. As a comparison, at the end of the second year after the launch of the first 4G network, there were 225.000 4G subscriptions [LI]. Ovum defines 5G subscription as an active connection to a 5G network via a 5G device [UCI]. In February 2017, Ovum revised its estimate to 25 million 5G subscribers worldwide by the end of 2021 [TA-3]. Ovum notes that 5G is at an early stage and thus there is a high degree of uncertainty around 5G deployment and adoption, including significant upside and downside risks [Ovum-3].
BMI Research predicts that there will be around 37 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2021 [BMI].
Machina Research expects around 3 million 5G connections by 2021 [MR].
iGR predicts that there will be 32 million connected 5G devices in 2021 [IGR].
Ericsson’s forecast is that 5G will have 150 million subscribers by 2021 [Tele]. However, the vendor defines a 5G subscription as a “device capable of supporting LTE Evolved or NX”, meaning that the estimate seems to include LTE Advanced subscriptions.
ABI Research projects that high-speed downlink LTE-Advanced Pro subscribers will reach 641 million in 2021 [ED].
In the 27 launching countries, 5G will account for 0.7% of total mobile connections [GSMA].
By the end of 2021, 82,6% of mobile connections will be LTE [LI]. However, Cisco has different estimates and expects that 53% of mobile connections will be 4G. 3G’s share will be 28,7%, 2G’s share 9,3% and LPWA’s share 8,9% [Cisco].
North America and Asia will each have nearly 10 million 5G subscribers [TW]. Europe and the Middle East and Africa will account for 10% each with close to 2.5 million subscriptions.
Ericsson expects 9,1 billion mobile subscriptions globally by the end of 2021 [ER-5].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts there will be 11,3 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2021 [UKS]. Areppim's estimate is 8,4551 billion [AR].
According to an extrapolation done by University of Surrey, there could be around 8,7 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2021 [SR]. Around 3,4 billion of them will be LTE subscriptions.

Mobile infrastructure market

5G Forum predicts that the size of the 5G network equipment market will be $8,01 billion in 2021 [5GF].
ETRI predicts that the size of the global 5G network equipment market will be $8,09 billion [5GE].
IHS Markit expects that early 5G rollouts will not be enough to push the overall mobile infrastructure market back into growth territory by 2021. By 2021, the mobile 5G infrastructure market is projected to be an around $2,5 billion market globally [CS-2].
Based on Market Reports Center’s CAGR estimate for 5G network infrastructure, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $3,35 billion in 2021 [PRNW-4].
IHS Markit expects the global LTE market to decline to $12 billion from its peak of $25,9 billion in 2015 (a CAGR of -12.4%) [CS-2].
Based on SNS Research’s CAGR estimate, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $3,4 billion in 2021 [TL-9].

Commercial LTE and 5G networks

GSA predicts that around 690 operators will have introduced LTE networks by 2021 [GSA].
GSA predicts that around 480 operators will have introduced LTE-Advanced networks by 2021 [GSA].
According to GSA, around 25 operators will have introduced commercial 5G services [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.
54 operators in 27 countries and six regions are expected to launch commercial 5G services by the end of 2021 [LI]. For LTE, 13 operators in 9 countries and six regions had launched commercial LTE services at the end of the second year after commercial launch of 4G.
Ovum is forecasting that more than 50 operators will be offering 5G services in close to 30 countries by the end of 2021 [TA-3, Ovum].
According to Ericsson, 40% of operators plan to launch 5G by 2021 [BI].
In a survey done by TIA, 31% of the operators interviewed indicated plans to launch full commercial 5G network at the latest by 2021 [VP]

Mobile data traffic

Cisco projects that by 2021, a 5G connection will generate 4,7 times more traffic than the average 4G connection [Cisco].
Mobile will represent 20% of total IP traffic by 2021 [Cisco].
Between 2016 and 2021, global mobile data traffic will increase sevenfold, growing at a CAGR of 47% and reaching 49 exabytes per month by 2021 [Cisco].
The average smartphone will generate 6,8 GB of traffic per month by 2021, which represents a 4-fold increase compared to the 2016 average of 1,6 GB/month [Cisco].
Mobile-connected tablets and PCs will generate 8 GB of traffic per month, which is over two times more than in 2016 (3.4 GB/month) [Cisco].
By 2021, 78% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video [Cisco]. This represents a 9-fold increase compared to 2016.
By 2021, the average global mobile connection speed will be 20,4 Mbps (from 6,8 Mbps in 2016) [Cisco].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 8.1 GB/month [UKS].

Mobile phones and devices

CCS Insight expects that 1,9 billion smartphones and 0,17 billion feature phones will be shipped in 2021 [CCS].
CCS Insight predicts that 100 million 5G-capable phones will be shipped in 2021 [CCS]. North America and developed markets in Asia–Pacific such as Japan and South Korea will be leading in the adoption of 5G phone.
ABI Research forecasts that cellular M2M module shipments will exceed 400 million in 2021 [MWJ-3]. ABI Research revised its forecast upwards compared to earlier years in part due to operator announcements for accelerated rollouts of NB-IoT networks. ABI Research expects that tracking of all types of products and simple monitoring and control of “things” will be the primary application segments for NB-IoT.
Business Insider projects that there will be 22,5 billion IoT devices in 2021, up from 6,6 billion in 2016 [BI-2]
Cisco projects that by 2021, there will be 11,6 billion mobile connected devices, including 3,3 billion M2M modules and 8,3 billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices [Cisco].
Ericsson expects 28 billion connected devices globally by 2021 [ER-7]. Close to 16 billion of them will be part of the Internet of Things.
ABI Research projects that 18 million new IIoT connections will be added annually by 2021 [5GA]. IIoT connections will total 125 million. Despite of the growth in connections, cellular and satellite connection-related revenues from IIoT will shrink from $138 million in 2017 to $122 million in 2021.

Other

According to a 5G Forum report, the market size of global 5G services will be $285 billion [5GF]. In contrast, Juniper Research expects global 5G service revenue to be only $0,7 billion in 2021 [EIT].
90% of 5G connections will be concentrated in North America, Oceania, and Western Europe [LI].
The main use case for 5G through 2021 will be eMBB services [TW]. However, fixed broadband services will also be supported especially in the US.
5G will not yet support massive IoT and critical IoT communications in 2021.
Eogogics expects manufacturing to be the leading 5G industrial IoT application area by 2021 [Eogo].
ABI Research estimates that the total AR market will reach $114 billion and the total VR market $65 billion by 2021 [5CU]. There will be 48 million AR smart glasses in operation by 2021. VR and AR applications could drive 5G adoption in its early stages due to the need for higher frame rates, higher resolutions, and lower latencies.
Ericsson expects that microwave will connect 65% of all radio sites by 2021 [FW-3]. In 2021, high-capacity radio sites will typically require backhaul in the 1Gbps range.
TBR expects the telecom infrastructure services market to return to growth after five years of continued decline thanks to 5G deployments [TBR]. The size of the market is forecast to be $94,3billion in 2021 (up from $94,1 billion in 2020).
Strategy Analytics expects 5G ARPU to drop to around $36 per month in 2021 from $50 per month in 2020 [Tele-3]. LTE ARPU will be around $13 per month.
Business insider forecasts that there will be $4,8 trillion in aggregate IoT investment between 2016 and 2021 [BI-2].
Based on LTE uptake rates, the South Korean government is expecting that 5G users will account for 30% of total mobile subscribers in South Korea in 2021 [MWL-3].
Cisco projects that almost 71% (166,3 exabytes) of the global Internet traffic will be on CDNs by 2021, up from 52% in 2016 [QZ]. In North America, the figure is going to be 91%. CDNs are exerting an increasing impact on the topology of the Internet due to the amount of traffic they handle. In North America, 60% of Internet traffic will be on private CDNs (of companies like Netflix, Google, and Amazon) by 2021.

2022

Mobile subscriptions

Ericsson’s forecast is that there will be 4,6 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2022 [ER-2].
According to ABI Research, there will be more than 4 billion people with LTE subscriptions, up from 2 billion in 2017 [PCW].
Strategy Analytics predicts that LTE subscriptions will total 5,6 billion by 2022, representing 62% of all mobile subscriptions (not including M2M) [RCR].
GSMA forecasts 300 million 5G connections and 22% coverage by the end of 2022 [GSMA].
Markets and Markets is less optimistic and predicts only 89 million 5G subscriptions by 2022 [MAM].
Ericsson is more optimistic and forecasts 550 million 5G subscriptions for 2022 [ER]. The population coverage will be 10% and will start in metropolitan and urban areas.
Machina Research has the lowest estimate, around 11 million 5G connections by 2022, around 1 million of which will be IoT [MR].
Strategy Analytics forecasts 116 million 5G connections in 2022 [PRNW-2]. The figure does not include vertical/industrial applications. Modems and routers will drive early 5G connection volume [Tele-3].
BMI Research predicts that there will be around 80 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2022 [BMI].
IDATE’s forecast is that there will be 240 million 5G subscribers by the end of 2022 [ID].
25% of all mobile subscriptions could be 5G in North America [GSMA].
ABI Research forecasts that worldwide fixed wireless broadband subscribers will grow at a 30% CAGR to reach 151 million in 2022 [FW]. The figure includes all cellular technologies.
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 11,9 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2022 [UKS].
According to Ericsson, there will be 8,9 billion worldwide mobile subscriptions by the end of 2022 [ER-2].
According to an extrapolation done by University of Surrey, there could be around 8,8 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2022 [SR]. Areppim's estimate is 8,5059 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

5G Forum and ETRI predict that the size of the 5G network equipment market will be $16,8 billion in 2022 [5GF, 5GE].
Based on SNS Research’s CAGR estimate for 5G network infrastructure, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $5,7 billion in 2022 [PRNW-4, TL-9].
ABI Research expects that 50% of the global population will be able to connect to a 4G LTE network by 2022 [ED].

Commercial LTE and 5G networks

GSA predicts that around 700 operators will have introduced LTE networks by the end of 2022 [GSA]. Around 520 operators will have introduced LTE-Advanced networks [GSA].
Around 60 operators will have introduced commercial 5G services [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.
In a survey done by TIA, 20% of the interviewed operators indicated that they plan to launch commercial 5G core and radio networks at the latest by 2022 [SC]

Mobile traffic

According to Ericsson, data traffic per smartphone will be 11 GB/month globally in 2022 [ER-2]. Monthly mobile data traffic per active smartphone in North America will reach 25 GB [ER-2].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 12,1 GB/month [UKS].
ABI Research forecasts that 13% of mobile traffic will be 5G by 2022 [PCW]. LTE’s share will be 82% (up from 67% in 2017).
Between 2016 and 2022, mobile data traffic will rise at a CAGR of 45%. During the same period, IoT devices will increase at a CAGR of 21%.
LTE’s share of all mobile traffic has grown to 82% from 67% in 2017. 5G’s share will be 13% of all mobile traffic [PCW]

Mobile phones and devices

Ericsson expects that globally, about 500 million subscribers will have a 5G-capable smartphone by the end of 2022 [UT].
70% of wide-area IoT devices will use cellular technology [ER-2]. There will be 2,1 billion wide-area IoT and 16 billion short-range IoT devices [ER-2].
According to Ericsson, there might be as many as 29 billion connected devices (18 billion of which are related to IoT) by 2022 [ER].

Other

A report by 5G Forum predicts that the market size of global 5G services will be $593 billion in 2022 [5GF].
Juniper Research expects global 5G service revenue to reach $2,4 billion in 2022 [EIT].
Strategy Analytics expects 5G ARPU to drop to around $31 per month in 2022 from $50 per month in 2020 [Tele-3]. LTE ARPU will be around $11 per month.
Based on LTE uptake rates, the South Korean government is expecting that 5G users will account for 50% of total mobile subscribers in South Korea in 2022 [MWL-3].
A study by Capgemini indicates that by the end of 2022, manufacturers expect that 21% of their plants will be smart factories [EII]. Smart factories use digital technologies such as IoT, big data analytics, AI and advanced robotics to increase productivity, quality and flexibility. Examples include collaborative robots, workers using AR components and machines that send alerts when they need maintenance. The industries that are expected to lead in the adoption of smart factories include aerospace, defense, industrial manufacturing and automotive. By 2022, investments in smart factories could increase manufacturing efficiency by 27%, which would add $500 billion in annual added value to the global economy.

2023

Mobile subscriptions

GSMA forecasts 500 million 5G connections and 25% coverage by the end of 2023 [GSMA].
Machina Research predicts around 23 million 5G connections, up to 5 million of which are IoT [MR].
According to an extrapolation done by the University of Surrey, there could be around 50 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2024 [SR]. The total number of mobile subscriptions is around 8,9 billion.
BMI Research predicts that there will be around 170 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2023 [BMI].
IDATE’s forecast is that there will be 456 million 5G subscribers by the end of 2023 [ID]
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 12,5 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2023 [UKS]. Areppim's estimate is 8,5439 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

ETRI predicts that the size of the 5G network equipment market will be $29,2 billion in 2023 [5GF, 5GE].
Based on SNS Research’s CAGR estimate for 5G network infrastructure, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $9,69 billion in 2023 [PRNW-4, TL-9].

Commercial 5G networks

GSA predicts that around 700 operators will have introduced LTE networks by the end of 2023 [GSA]. Around 550 operators will have introduced LTE-Advanced networks.
Around 120 operators will have introduced commercial 5G services [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.

Mobile traffic

UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 18 GB/month [UKS].

Other

The market size of global 5G services will be $1.029 billion [5GF].
Juniper Research expects global 5G service revenue to reach $7,9 billion by 2023 [EIT].
Northstream predicts that mass deployments of 5G will start at the earliest in 2023 [Telco]. Until then, operators will invest heavily in the evolution of LTE rather than going all-in on 5G before it has been fully standardized.

2024

Mobile subscriptions

GSMA expects 800 million connections and 29% coverage by the end of 2024 [GSMA].
Juniper Research forecasts around 80 million 5G users by the end of 2024 [CBR].
According to an extrapolation done by the University of Surrey, there could be around 100 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2024 [SR]. The total number of mobile subscriptions will be around 8,9 billion.
Machina Research estimates that by 2024, there will be around 41 million 5G connections globally, 10 million of which will be IoT connections [MR, TN]. This will amount to 0.5% of all cellular IoT connections (i.e., there will be 200 million cellular IoT connections in total). Approximately 75% of 5G IoT connections will be in the connected car sector [TN]. The majority of these will be embedded vehicle connections. Other top 5G applications include CCTV and digital signage.
BMI Research predicts that there will be around 310 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2024 [BMI].
IDATE expects 829 million 5G subscribers by 2024 [ID].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 13,2 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2024 [UKS]. Areppim's estimate is 8,5724 billion [AR].
According to ABI Research, 50% of all mobile subscriptions will be LTE by 2020, up from 30% in 2017 [ME-3].

Mobile infrastructure market

ETRI predicts that the size of the 5G network equipment market will be $36,5 billion [5GF, 5GE].
Based on SNS Research’s CAGR estimate, the global 5G network infrastructure market could account for $16,5 billion in 2024 [PRNW-4, TL-9].

Commercial 5G networks

GSA predicts that around 700 operators will have introduced LTE networks by the end of 2024 [GSA]. Around 570 operators will have introduced LTE-Advanced networks [GSA].
GSA also predicts that around 200 operators will have introduced commercial 5G services [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.

Mobile traffic

UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 26.8 GB/month [UKS].

Mobile phones and devices

Strategy Analytics forecasts that 2024 will be the first year when 5G IoT modules will outsell LTE IoT modules [MWJ-2].
Mobile Experts expects 500 million 5G devices to be shipped in 2024 [ME].

Other

Juniper Research expects global 5G service revenue to reach $23,3 billion in 2024 [EIT].
A report by the 5G Forum projects that the market size of global 5G services will be $1.287 billion [5GF].
The global cloud robotics market is expected to reach $22 billion by 2024, up from $1,4 billion in 2016 (a CAGR of 32.4%) [Embedded]. The adoption of 5G connectivity in cloud robotics is expected to witness exponential growth between 2016-2024 because of the sub-millisecond latency and higher bandwidth provided by 5G.
Accenture estimates that U.S. telecom operators could invest approximately $275 billion between 2017 and 2024 to deploy next-generation wireless technology [ACC]. Of that $275 billion, $93 billion is expected to be spent on construction, with the remainder being allocated for network equipment, engineering, and planning. Moreover, 5G could help create 3 million jobs, and approximately $500 billion in annual GDP in the US.

2025

Mobile subscriptions

GSMA predicts 1,1 billion 5G connections and 34% coverage (2.6 billion people) by 2025 [GSMA, GSMA-4].
Also Ovum expects 5G to reach its first billion subscriptions by 2025 (in approximately five years) [Ovum].
According to Juniper Research, however, there will be only 240 million 5G users by 2025 [CBR]. Juniper expects 5G’s share of global mobile connections to be 3% [CBR].
Strategy Analytics expects around 690 million 5G connections by 2025 [TA-2]. 5G will account for 7% of all mobile connections by this time. The figure does not include vertical/industrial applications.
ABI Research expects that it will take 5G until 2025 to reach 100 million subscribers [ABI].
BMI Research predicts that there will be around 420 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2025 [BMI].
According to an extrapolation done by the University of Surrey, there could be around 200 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2025 [SR]. The total number of mobile subscriptions will be around 8,9 billion.
IDATE forecasts 1,651 billion 5G subscribers by 2025 [ID].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 13,8 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2025 [UKS]. Areppim's estimate is 8,5936 billion [AR].

Mobile infrastructure market

ETRI predicts that the size of the 5G network equipment market will be $45,5 billion in 2025 [5GF, 5GE].
SNS Research / Markets and Markets expect that the 5G network infrastructure market will reach $28 billion in annual spending by the end of 2025 [GNW, TL-9]. The CAGR between 2019 and 2025 will be nearly 70%.

Commercial 5G networks

GSA predicts that around 710 operators will have introduced LTE networks by the end of 2025 [GSA]. Around 590 operators will have introduced LTE-Advanced networks [GSA].
270 operators will have introduced commercial 5G services [GSA]. The estimate includes all kinds of 5G services, including ones where coverage is limited to dense urban areas.
According to GSMA’s CEO 5G survey, 74% of operators studied plan to roll out 5G by 2025 [GSMA-4, TW-2]. A survey by TIA indicates that 75% of the interviewed operators plan to introduce 5G at the latest by 2025 [VP]. According to some estimates, there are around 800 operators in the world [GSMA-7, QU].

Mobile phones and devices

Strategy Analytics forecasts that over 190 million 5G IoT modules will be shipped in 2025 [MWJ-2]. The automotive vertical market will be the single largest consumer of IoT cellular modules during the period 2019 – 2025.
Strategy Analytics predicts that the sales of 5G-compatible phones will exceed 300 million by 2025 [Fortune].
By the end of 2025, there will be annual shipments of up to 520 million 5G-capable devices [GNW].
Huawei predicts 100 billion IoT connections by 2025 [TA]. Earlier, Huawei estimated that there will be 100 billion wireless connections (IoT and everything else) globally by 2025 and that 90% of the connections will be IoT [Huawei-2].

Other

Juniper Research projects that 5G services revenue will be $65,7 billion, representing 7% of all operator-billed service revenues [Juniper-1, Juniper-2]. 5G revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 266% over the period 2020-2025.
ABI Research is more optimistic, projecting that mobile broadband operators will see 5G revenues of $247 billion in 2025 [TTV].
ReportsnReports projects that 5G networks will generate nearly $250 billion in annual service revenue by 2025 [PRNW]. According to a report by the 5G Forum, the figure will be $1,164 [5GF].
Juniper Research predicts that widespread 5G adoption will only occur from 2025, with national spectrum licensing occurring over a period of years similar to LTE [CBR, Juniper-1].
According to ABI Research, the global equipment market for in-building wireless systems, including active distributed antenna systems (DAS), passive DAS, and repeaters is expected to grow to $10 billion in 2025 [TA]. Out of this market, 5G in-building wireless equipment will account for only 5% or $509 million since 5G deployments indoors and in venues will start one year later than outdoor 5G deployments. 5G deployments indoors and in venues will be a migration building on the features of LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro.
According to another estimate, the in-building wireless market will grow to $19 billion by 2025 [TL]. Through 2025, LTE will dominate DAS spending.
The global market for ultra-dense small cell services is expected to reach $2,6 billion on annual average in the period 2018-2025 [5GF]. According to TIA’s (Telecommunications Industry Association) 5G operator survey, an intelligent ultra-dense small cell service is ranked as the most important 5G feature [5GF].
Global autonomous robot market is expected to be $33,6 billion in 2017 and reach $41,6 billion in 2025 [5GF].
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market will diversify to personal and public use cases from military use cases. It will reach $5,4 billion in 2025 (up from $4,8 billion in 2018) [5GF].
The global market for public safety networks is expected to reach $43,2 billion in 2025 (up from $28,8 billion in 2018; a CAGR of 5,9%) [5GF].
More than 7 million truck platooning systems could be shipped by 2025. This provides a large revenue opportunity for communication service providers [Nokia].
Eogogics predicts that by 2025, leading 5G apps will include IoT, Haptic Internet, Virtual Reality, and Robotics [Eogo].
Strategy Analytics estimates that the number of cellular IoT connections will increase to 2,4 billion in 2025 [Tele-2].
ABI Research predicts that by 2025, 67 million automotive 5G vehicle subscriptions will be active [TFM]. Three million of them will be low latency connections mainly deployed in autonomous and driverless cars.
By 2025, high-capacity radio sites are expected to typically require backhaul in the 5Gbps range, up from 1 Gbps in 2021 [FW-3].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 39,4 GB/month [UKS].
iGR expects that in the US, building and deploying 5G networks will cost $56 billion between 2017 and 2025 [WW]. This will be divided among three main components, including RAN upgrades, cell site densification using small cells, and the creation of data centers, central offices and Mobile Edge Computing (MEC).

2026

Mobile subscriptions

Juniper Research believes that 5G adoption rate will accelerate from 2025 onwards [CBR].
iGR estimates that 5G connections will grow to 1.3 billion in 2026 [IGR].
ABI Research forecasts 500 million 5G cmWave (3-30 GHz) and mmWave (30-100 GHz) subscribers by 2026 [ABI-2].
According to an extrapolation done by the University of Surrey, there could be around 500 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2026 [SR]. The total number of mobile subscriptions will be around 8,9 billion.
SNS Research predicts that there could be around <removed> billion 5G subscriptions by 2026 [SNS-3].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 14,4 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2026 [UKS].
ABI Research projects that 70% of all LTE Advanced Pro subscriptions will be Gigabit LTE by 2026 [ME-3].

Mobile infrastructure market

ETRI predicts that the size of the 5G network equipment market will be $52,6 billion in 2026 [5GF, 5GE].
SNS Research forecasts that global 5G infrastructure investments will account for roughly <removed> billion in 2026 [SNS-3].

Mobile traffic

UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 57,5 GB/month [UKS].

Other

A report by the 5G Forum projects that the market size of global 5G services will be $1.861,5 billion in 2026, up from $36,4 billion in 2020 (a CAGR of 92.7%) [5GF].
According to Ericsson, 5G will be worth a total of $1,2 trillion by 2026 [BB].
ABI Research forecasts that LTE will deliver nearly $3,5 trillion in service revenues in 2026 [MWJ]. 5G will deliver $200 billion in service revenues. LTE, LTE-Advanced, and LTE-Advanced Pro have exceeded 5 billion subscriptions.
ABI Research expects that the 5G subscriber base will grow to account for close to 5% of all mobile subscribers. LTE will represent more than 50% of global mobile subscriptions [MWJ].
Eogogics expects that 5G will lead to accelerated Virtual Reality deployment with $72 billion incremental revenue by 2026 [Eogo].
Based on LTE uptake rates, the South Korean government is expecting that 5G users will account for 90% of total mobile subscribers in South Korea in 2026 [MWL-3].

2027

Mobile subscriptions

According to an extrapolation done by the University of Surrey, there could be around 800 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2027 [SR]. The total number of mobile subscriptions will be around 8,9 billion.
SNS Research predicts that there could be around <removed> billion 5G subscriptions by 2027 [SNS-3].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 15,1 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2027 [UKS].

Mobile traffic

UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 83.5 GB/month [UKS].

2028

Mobile subscriptions

According to an extrapolation done by the University of Surrey, there could be around 1,4 billion 5G subscriptions by the end of 2028 [SR]. The total number of mobile subscriptions is around 9 billion. University of Surrey expects 2028 to be the peak year for LTE subscriptions.
SNS Research predicts that there could be around <removed> billion 5G subscriptions by 2028 [SNS-3].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 15,7 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2028 [UKS].

Mobile traffic

UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 121,3 GB/month [UKS].

2029

Mobile subscriptions

According to an extrapolation done by the University of Surrey, there could be around 1,8 billion 5G subscriptions by the end of 2029 [SR]. The total number of mobile subscriptions is predicted to be around 9,1 billion.
SNS Research predicts that there could be around <removed> billion 5G subscriptions by 2029 [SNS-3].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 16,4 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2029 [UKS].

Mobile traffic

UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 177 GB/month [UKS].

2030

Mobile subscriptions

According to an extrapolation done by the University of Surrey, there could be around 2,2 billion 5G subscriptions by the end of 2030 [SR]. The total number of mobile subscriptions is predicted to be around 9,2 billion.
SNS Research predicts that there could be around <removed> billion 5G subscriptions by 2030 [SNS-3].
UK Spectrum Policy Forum predicts that there will be 17,1 billion global mobile subscriptions by 2030 [UKS].

Mobile infrastructure

SNS Research expects the global wireless infrastructure market will grow at a CAGR of 50% by 2030 from $61 billion in 2020 [FOX].

Mobile traffic

UK Spectrum Policy Forum estimates that global mobile traffic consumed per mobile subscription will be 257,1 GB/month [UKS]. This is roughly equivalent to 57 hours of HDTV content at 10 Mbit/s.

Other

Eogogics expects that 5G-enabled autonomous robots market will reach $14,6 billion by 2030 [Eogo].
The cost of electric parts and software will reach 50% of the total cost of self-driving cars in 2030 [5GF].
In China, 5G is expected to drive $930 billion of economic output by 2030 [BS].

2035

Other

5G’s full economic benefit should be realized across the world by 2035 and could produce up to $12,3 trillion worth of global economic output, including goods and services enabled by 5G in a broad range of industries from retail to education, transportation to entertainment and everything in between [QC]. $12,3 trillion is nearly equivalent to all US consumer spending in 2016 [IHS].
IHS Markit expects that 5G value chain will be generating $3,5 trillion in output, supporting as many as 22 million jobs [QC]. This value is larger than the value of today’s entire mobile value chain and corresponds roughly to the combined revenue of the top 13 companies on the 2016 Fortune Global 100 list [IHS].
The 5G value chain will be investing an average of $200 billion annually to the 5G technology base within network and business application infrastructure. This figure is almost half of total US federal, state, and local government spending on transportation infrastructure in 2014 [IHS].
5G will boost real global GDP growth by $3 trillion dollars cumulatively from 2020 to 2035, which corresponds roughly to adding an economy the size of India to the world in today’s dollars [QC].
The global market for systems for autonomous cars is expected to grow up to $1,152 billion in 2035 (from $189 billion in 2020).

2039

Mobile subscriptions

University of Surrey predicts that 2039 will be the peak year for 5G subscriptions [SR].

References

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Risks and Challenges for 5G

In an earlier blog post, I listed reasons for why 5G is needed. This blog post takes a look at what kinds of risks and challenges exist for 5G in the areas of spectrum, small cells, technology fragmentation, revenue, cost of rollout, IoT, NFV, SDN & cloud, alternative access technologies, network sharing, use cases, backhaul & fronthaul, regulation, and devices.

Spectrum

In GSMA’s 2017 operator survey, 34% of the respondents ranked spectrum availability and spectrum fragmentation as the most important risk in delivering 5G, making it the second biggest risk identified in the survey [GSMA-2]
The accelerated schedule for 5G that is, 5G NR (New Radio) non-standalone, means that there will be less time to agree on some of the open issues around 5G, such as the fact that no global spectrum bands have been identified for 5G [BMI]. Several ongoing trials are using frequencies that are only available in a specific market or region. As an example, the spectrum that the US wants to use is not available in most other countries [RW]. Global bands that are harmonized from one country to another need to be identified to ensure the necessary economies of scale for 5G device manufacturers and the ability for devices to function across many regions. The World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) in 2019 plans to discuss spectrum from 6GHz up to 100GHz to harmonize its usage across the world. However, 2019 is fairly late, considering that pre-commercial 5G trials have already started now in 2017. Rethink Wireless is concerned that this might lead to gambles, guesswork and political maneuvering when it comes to which spectrum bands to use.
The expectation is that by 2020, the number of LTE operators has increased a third compared to 2016 and LTE coverage has reached 75% of the world’s population [GSMA]. However, 150 countries will still have LTE adoption at less than 30% of all cellular connections, the majority of the connections being either 2G or 3G. In the long term, limited LTE adoption could mean reduced opportunity to shut down 2G and 3G networks to refarm spectrum for LTE Advanced and 5G. This could prevent or at least slow down 5G deployment.
The costs of using higher spectrum bands to build a 5G network could be enormous [LR]. Deutsche Telekom’s (DT) CEO estimates that the cost of covering Europe with 5G could be anywhere between $318 billion and $529 billion. DT’s CTO expects that radio will account for between 50% and 70% of the final 5G bill largely due to network densification (i.e., small cells). According to a report from Barclays, the Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) needs to be at least 8% for an operator so that the operator is able to finance a 5G rollout. Incumbents like DT probably have a ROCE that is at least at that level. However, tier-3 operators often have a lower ROCE and the overall industry barely reaches the 8% ROCE level.
Rethink Wireless is concerned that 5G is in danger of not happening in the manner and timescale that vendors and operators are hoping for [RW]. Some of the reasons include the considerable complexity 5G aims to address and its cost. According to Rethink Wireless, the use of spectrum above 6GHz is likely to be slow and perhaps less than one percent of only very advanced regions will be covered by 2020, which may not generate enough of revenue to sustain the business of all the major players.

Small Cells

To satisfy demand and enable the introduction of 5G, some estimates indicate that at least 10 small cells per current macro base station would be needed in dense urban environments, where cells are already today rather tightly deployed so that they can cope with traffic density [ARC]. 5G antennas are likely to be larger than current 2-4G antennas because of massive MIMO (Massive Input Massive Output) processing that will require the use of a very large number of radiating antenna elements. Additional antennas compatible with the new 5G spectrum bands will need to be deployed also. This means that the reuse of existing antenna masts could be problematic and new transmission sites will be needed. New sites are also needed to install small cells in semi-elevated locations. Due to the required high density of the new installations, operators will need to deploy the equipment on infrastructure like bus shelters, lamp posts, public buildings, billboards, street furniture, etc.
A survey by TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association) indicates that lack of partner diversity is a likely challenge for 5G network densification efforts [GNW]. Since small cells are a key requirement for the maintstream rollout of 5G, operators need to ensure they have the right partnerships (e.g., with building owners, electrical utilities and public lightning companies) in place to address site acquisition challenges.
Analysys Mason estimates that 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) will most likely be cheaper than FTTP (Fiber-to-the-Premises) (except where this is aerial) but will cost more than G.fast [AM]. However, this may not matter in the long run because 5G fixed wireless access cells can be reused for future 5G mobile wireless access.
5G may not appear in its full form at first, at least not until 5G coverage is built out using small cells across all the spectra [RW]. Rethink Wireless expects this not to happen until 2030 or 2035. By that time, today’s MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) and equipment vendors could be facing tough times. 5G elements might be able to sit inside a sub-6GHz LTE and LTE-Advanced network as easily as in a full 5G network. That would mean that no full-scale upgrade will be needed this time. Rethink Wireless believes that 5G will not involve another big bang upgrade since this is economically and logistically unfeasible for most operators for another 10 years or so. Instead, 5G will be phased in gradually alongside LTE on the MNO’s own schedule. Rethink Wireless expects that MNOs will take the quickest upgrades relatively quickly and then be very slow to deploy small cells. Since 5G can co-exist with LTE, operators can afford to wait perhaps even 15 or 25 years before fully deploying small cells. In the meantime, much more investment will go into macrocells.
Vodafone’s CTO has stated that he is worried about the hype surrounding mmWave (millimeter wave) technology [LR-2]. There are practical problems with mmWave, including even leaves on a tree becoming barriers to signals in the mmWave range. Vodafone believes that there might be hotspot areas where one can use mmWave, but sees sub-6GHz as the sweet spot for 5G. Besides leaves on a tree, mmWave spectrum will not go through walls and not even all windows [RW]. Thus, the propagation qualities of the mmWave bands make it difficult to achieve widespread coverage especially in more sparsely populated areas [ARC]. However, it should be noted that very high frequencies are mostly an option for line-of-sight and non-line-of-sight outdoor-to-outdoor coverage and indoor-to-indoor coverage, rather than for outdoor-to-indoor coverage [IEEE]. The mmWave bands are also lacking in technological maturity when it comes to delivering consumer market communication services. For widespread coverage, bands below 6GHz are needed.
DT is estimating that a cell site based on 28GHz spectrum, which is the focus of pre-commercial 5G efforts by Verizon in the US, would have a diameter of only 80 meters [LR-2].

Technology Fragmentation

In GSMA’s 2017 operator survey, 6% of the respondents ranked technology fragmentation as the most important risk in delivering 5G, making in the fifth biggest risk identified in the survey [GSMA-2]
There is a concern that the different timing of operator agendas for 5G and pre-commercial 5G deployment together with the race to be the first to introduce 5G could lead to the deployment of non-standardized networks, interfaces and end-user equipment, leading to cost, battery life and interoperability issues, similar to what has happened with some of the earlier mobile generations [ALT].

5G Revenue

Gartner believes that while Communication Service Providers (CSPs) are the ones who will need to invest in 5G network infrastructure, they may not be the main beneficiaries of the economic value 5G will create [Gartner].
Strand Consult foresees that 5G will find it difficult to create economic growth, contrary to what is being commonly claimed [Strand]. According to them, 5G will not be a total loss, but will probably be a financial disappointment for most players. Strand consult goes as far as to consider 5G as “just an orgy of hype”.
Analysys Mason sees a risk that the investment required by MNOs to deliver widespread IoT services might exceed their revenue unless additional spectrum is made available [AM-2].
5G is expected to require more vendor financing since MNOs will want the revenues first and then pay the costs [RW]. This means that the network vendors will need to find ways to provide more that type of funding.
It will take some time for the tier 1 opreators to replenish their cash supply after 5G spectrum auction activities have finished [RW]. If MNOs continue to go after existing markets (e.g., smartphone users and Ultra-HD video delivery), they may never replenish their cash reserves, given that ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) numbers are headed down and less cash per customer is generated every year. In addition, according to Analysys Mason, the introduction of ever higher speeds and capacity in 4.5G networks has diminishing returns [AM]. Thus, 5G will need to generate revenue from other use cases beyond eMBB (enhanced Mobile Broadband) services. A solution to these issues is for MNOs to seek out new markets, that is, the vertical industries (see the IoT section below).
According to DT, there is a strong likelihood that cost challenges will slow down the rate of 5G adoption, especially given the improvements being made in LTE [LR], which may make the rapid introduction of 5G less critical. DT’s CTO says that the industry will survive beyond 2020 because 4G will evolve further (i.e., LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced-Pro) and therefore “It is not going to be the big bang with 5G”.
According to Analysys Mason, there is no clear indication that 5G will reverse the current declining mobile ARPU trends in Europe [AM-2]. The same could also be said about the North American market. Thus, a key issue in these markets, especially where there is strong infrastructure competition, is that operators have to consider major new technology investments in the context of declining revenues. If mobile operators maintain the current levels of investment, the resulting population coverage for 5G may not be sufficient to meet market needs in all countries (e.g., Germany, France and the UK).
Also according to Park Associates, 5G data service ARPU has limited room for expansion from current levels [PA]. Thus, mobile operators are seeking revenue streams in the broader IoT market.
Gartner points out that also a weak global economy could naturally delay 5G deployments [Gartner].

Cost of Rollout

According to GSMA’s Mobile World Live 2017 industry survey, the biggest barrier for 5G deployment will be the cost of roll-out [MWL]. For mobile operators, 5G cost is a significant pressure coming rather soon after the industry’s multi-billion dollar investments in LTE.
Also, 5G may cost more than 4G simply based on historical trends, which show that each new “G” has required greater numbers of cell sites to account for signal propagation of higher-frequency signals and greater need for frequency reuse [IPC]. And 5G will certainly result in an increase in the number of cell sites due to mmWave spectrum and small cells.

IoT

Analysys Mason claims that almost all the envisioned use cases for IoT can use a variant of LTE, or even something simpler, without needing a major network investment. This means that any business case for 5G investment cannot rely on IoT (and eMBB, as discussed above) alone [IBN]. The most commonly cited IoT application for 5G is the use of 5G for V2X (Vehicle-to-Everything) communications since it benefits from low latency. However, for example Nokia has stated that it has not yet found any vehicle platooning use case that would need 5G. Analysys Mason is also pointing out that IoT players are already developing solutions and are not waiting for the launch of 5G [TL].
In 2016, revenue from IoT accounted for less than 1% of most operators’ total revenue. If assuming a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 20%, which is in line with the current growth rates of operators’ IoT businesses, it would take until 2025 for IoT to exceed 5% of operators’ total revenue [TL].
The integration of connectivity within new industries poses multiple challenges, such as the need for expressing industry-specific KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) as network requirements [ALT]. This requires cross-industry collaboration and development.
Gartner believes that a lower than expected demand for IoT could delay 5G deployments [Gartner].
According to Rethink Wireless, the industry is attempting to sell a vision of 5G being the future of the networked enterprise and IoT [RW]. To achieve this, 5G has become an “unachievable science project” that tells everyone it can do everything with low cost. Rethink expects 5G to fail in its key aim, which is to keep cellular valued higher than other wireless technologies.
Strand Consult finds it difficult to see big financial value in IoT for telecommunications companies that build and operate infrastructure [Strand]. This analysis, however, misses the development where some operators, like Verizon, are making acquisitions to build an IoT service business.

NFV, SDN and Cloud

Parks Associates sees that it will not be easy for operators to transform their networks from hardware-centric to software-defined and virtualized, which is a transformation that is needed so that networks will have the flexibility to support the diverse use cases and unique requirements of industrial IoT verticals [PA].
Some challenges that the transition to virtualized networks (SDN and NFV) brings include NFV infrastructure performance, workload configuration and multi-vendor integration, interoperability, and standardization [ALT]. The mobile operators are far behind the web players (e.g., Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc.) when it comes to the adoption maturity of SDN and virtualization technologies. Operators will need a mentality and cultural change to adopt DevOps, continuous-X, automation-oriented workflows and agile technologies together with the integration of network and IT operational tasks. This could turn out to be more challenging and time-consuming than expected.

Alternative Access Technologies

In GSMA’s 2017 operator survey, 23% of the respondents ranked competition from alternative networks as the most important risk in delivering 5G, making it the third biggest risk identified in the survey [GSMA-2]
Also Gartner sees that challenges from alternative access technologies, such as Wi-Fi could lead to the delay of 5G deployments [Gartner].
According to Analysys Mason, 5G IoT use cases face challenges from LPWA (Low-Power Wide-Area) networks [AM]. The only use case that exploits the unique 5G capabilities might be critical IoT, but that is also the use case that is the farthest away in time.
Parks Associates sees that IoT verticals’ unique requirements and diverse use cases open up market opportunities for alternative network providers like SIGFOX and Ingenu [PA].
While Park Associates expects the global mobile data revenue to increase from $386 billion in 2015 to $630 billion in 2020, North America and Western Europe will see only minimal growth. Especially in the US, there is consumer interest towards alternatives like Wi-Fi to reduce mobile data bills. Cable operators are promoting Wi-Fi hotspots and roughly 70% of US mobile consumers are interested in Wi-Fi only data plans [PA]. Rethink Wireless cites a report that suggests that US cable operators could grab 20% of current MNO customers in the US by 2021 using Wi-Fi first models [RW]. This could make major US operators like Verizon and AT&T less profitable in the near term. The resulting debt rating misalignment would likely make the rapid buildout of 5G difficult to pay in practice.
According to DT, the industry has to collaborate to drive the cost of 5G down. DT mentions Facebook’s Terragraph initiative (which uses spectrum in the 60 GHz range to provide high-speed connectivity in densely populated areas) as an example of the kind of innovation and partnership that has the potential to improve 5G economics [LR].
Rethink Wireless forecasts about 13 million non-domestic LTE-Advanced small cells to be installed by 2020 [RW]. In contrast, Wi-Fi first opponents will be relying on 500 million homespots and perhaps 10 million public hotspots. Rethink Wireless believes that the advantage of Wi-Fi may not last forever, but it will last long enough to create financial issues for some operators.

Network Sharing

Modeling done by Analysys Mason suggests that extending the coverage of a 5G MBB (Mobile Broadband) network to provide 100% road coverage along highways and motorways for ITS (Intelligent Transport System) use cases is not attractive for operators under assumptions of current market structure (i.e., multiple competing operator networks) [AM-2]. However, if competing operators collaborate to deploy a single shared infrastructure along major road routes, the business case can become viable.
Deutsche Telekom has stated that it is looking at network sharing as a way to reduce the capex bill for 5G [LR].
Another scenario where network sharing is likely to become necessary is indoor deployments of 5G small cells as it would be expensive and impractical for every operator to deploy their own indoor small cells in every building. This will require new partnerships and business models such as neutral host arrangements.
Analysys Mason believes that a potential solution to the problem posed by diverse vertical industry 5G use cases and their different regulatory requirements could be greater use of common platforms between verticals and increased network sharing, including accessing infrastructure owned by public authorities to roll out 5G networks [AM-2].

5G Use Cases

In GSMA’s 2017 operator survey, 51% of the respondents ranked lack of a clear business case as the most important risk in delivering 5G, making it the biggest risk identified in the survey [GSMA-2]
BMI Research believes that there is yet no real business case for 5G services [BMI]
According to Cisco, operators must solve the challenge of effectively monetizing video traffic (by 2021, 78% of the world’s mobile data traffic is expected to be video) while developing profitable business cases that support the investments needed for 5G infrastructure [Cisco].
The functional requirements for some 5G vertical use cases are diverse (e.g., healthcare, transport, energy, etc.) and each industry vertical operates under different regulatory regimes. This creates complexities for MNOs [AM-2].
Rethink Wireless believes that the industry needs to find new revenues for 5G [RW]. Ultra-HD video will not pay for 5G investments since people that use it have not shown intentions to pay and are happy consuming it over Wi-Fi. According to Rethink Wireless, never before in the history of the telecommunications industry has a technology been put forward to solve so many problems at once, without anyone being clear on who will pay for what and in what timeframe.
New business models need to be developed for 5G [ALT]. With the emergence of NaaS (Network-as-a-Service) and network slicing, third parties can sell services relying on the MNO-owned networks. This will reshuffle the value chain and create new platform business models (e.g., a car company paying to an operator for a 5G network slice to be able to offer guaranteed connectivity services to their driver customers). The 5G network will become an integral part of business models in diverse vertical industries, which enables new actors to enter the resulting ecosystems. Operators need to assess the relationships with their current and future partners to optimally position themselves in the market and define their role in IoT.

Backhaul and Fronthaul

One of the biggest issues for 5G might be the cost of backhaul and fronthaul [RW]. Rethink Wireless estimates that between 30-50 small cells will be needed per each current LTE macrocell (a more conservative estimate referred to earlier in this blog post is 10 [ARC], but the figure depends among other things on the frequency band used). This could imply a rise of more than 7 times compared to the current operational costs. Thus, technological innovations are needed for backhaul and backhaul also needs to be made much cheaper. However, there are no standards for backhaul.
Cisco believes that backhaul capacity and efficiency must increase so that mobile broadband, data access, and video services can effectively support consumer usage trends and keep mobile infrastructure costs under control [Cisco].
Ensuring regional connectivity might be one of the challenges for 5G since mobile networks have not earlier employed so high frequencies which require a high number of relay antennas to be installed [ARC]. This raises the question of the cost of deploying optical fiber to connect 5G radio or baseband units. Thus, the industry needs to design technologies that will make it possible to minimize the cost of 5G rollouts especially in rural areas.
It is expected that backhaul will be a challenge in India for the migration from existing networks to 5G since less than 20% of Indian networks are running via fiber optic cables [ET]. Around 80% of cell sites in India are connected via microwave backhaul. Today's microwave backhaul does not provide enough bandwidth for 5G, whereas fiber-based backhaul can offer nearly unlimited capacity and low latency. According to Reliance Communications, strong backhaul is one of the fundamental requirements for 5G. Building backhaul is time-consuming and extremely expensive in the present conditions in India. Besides fiber-based backhaul, another option is installation of higher-capacity microwave links.

Regulation

In GSMA’s 2017 operator survey, 20% of the respondents ranked regulation as the most important risk in delivering 5G, making it the fourth biggest risk identified in the survey [GSMA-2]
According to several enterprises and electronic communication sector stakeholders, overly strong enforcement of network neutrality e.g., by BEREC (Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communications) could have a negative effect on the 5G rollout schedule [ARC]
To overcome issues with the cost of 5G deployment, Analysys Mason recommends the regulatory environment for 5G to promote network and infrastructure sharing where it is commercially and technologically advantageous [AM-2].

5G Devices

Rethink Wireless estimates that a standards-compliant 5G handset would today cost at least $1800 to build, since the handsets are more complex and offer more and more onboard radios and antennas so that the devices can speak throughout the 5G spectrum [RW]. Chips with MU-MIMO (Multi-User Massive Input Massive Output) logic built into them may be exceptionally expensive until they are produced in volumes of hundreds of millions. 5G devices may also have a dramatically lower battery life than LTE devices, at least initially. If the US moves early and thereby cements the 5G spectrum, it risks compromising the economies of scale that 5G devices will need.
Rethink Wireless believes that the smartphone is ready to become a commodity and the sudden halt of smartphone growth starts to look more and more probable [RW]. This would mean that there is less money available for the mobile phone industry to invest in the R&D required by 5G.

References

[ALT] 5G as the enabler of cross-industry convergence, https://www.altran.com/fileadmin/medias/1.altran.com/files/PDF/Mobile_World_Congress_2017/Position_Papers/5G_as_the_enabler_of_cross-industry_convergence_White_paper.pdf

[AM] The investment case for 5G mobile is more distant without fixed wireless, http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Comments/5G-fixed-case-Aug2016-RDTW0-RDCS0/

[AM-2] Regulatory options to promote investment in 5G and IoT – a study for Qualcomm, https://www.techuk.org/component/techuksecurity/security/download/10241?file=Janette_Stewart_Analysys_Mason_-_Presentation_from_Analysys_Mason_Qualcomm_study_for_SPF_140217.pdf&Itemid=182

[ARC] 5G: Issues & Challenges, March 2017, http://www.arcep.fr/uploads/tx_gspublication/Report-5G-issues-challenges-march2017.pdf

[BMI] Early 5G Still Needs A Business Case, http://www.bmiresearch.com/articles/early-5g-still-needs-a-business-case

[Cisco] Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2016–2021 White Paper, http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/mobile-white-paper-c11-520862.html

[ET] Migration to 5G will be challenging for India: Experts, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/migration-to-5g-will-be-challenging-for-india-experts/articleshow/58886148.cms

[Gartner] 5G — Who’s in the Driver’s Seat? http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5g-whos-in-the-drivers-seat/

[GNW] TIA Survey Reveals Deployment Hurdles for Operators Before Commercial 5G in 2020, https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/03/16/939987/0/en/TIA-Survey-Reveals-Deployment-Hurdles-for-Operators-Before-Commercial-5G-in-2020.html

[GSMA] Uneven 4G adoption has implications for 5G outlook, https://www.gsmaintelligence.com/research/2017/04/uneven-4g-adoption-has-implications-for-5g-outlook/618/

[GSMA-2] The 5G era: Age of boundless connectivity and intelligent automation, https://www.gsmaintelligence.com/research/2017/02/the-5g-era-age-of-boundless-connectivity-and-intelligent-automation/614/

[IBN] MWC 2017: IoT has no compelling need for 5G – focus was on LTE variants for IoT, https://iotbusinessnews.com/2017/03/15/80790-mwc-2017-iot-no-compelling-need-5g-focus-lte-variants-iot/

[IEEE] Outdoor-to-indoor coverage in high frequency bands, http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7063463/?arnumber=7063463

[IPC] 5G Will Cost More than 4G, But How Much More?, https://ipcarrier.blogspot.fi/2017/05/5g-will-cost-more-than-4g-but-how-much.html

[LR] DT CTO: Costs Must Fall or 5G 'Won't Work, http://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/dt-cto-costs-must-fall-or-5g-wont-work/d/d-id/730664

[LR-2] Vodafone CTO 'Worried' About 5G mmWave Hype, http://www.lightreading.com/mobile/spectrum/vodafone-cto-worried-about-5g-mmwave-hype/d/d-id/730679

[MWL] Mobile World Live, Annual Industry Suvey 2017, https://www.mobileworldlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/19308%20MWL%20Annual%20Survey.pdf

[PA] Global mobile data revenues to reach $630 billion by 2020, https://www.parksassociates.com/blog/article/pr-07112016

[RW] The reasons why 5G can never happen, http://rethink-wireless.com/2016/07/19/the-reasons-why-5g-can-never-happen/

[Strand] 2017 Predictions and review of 2016, http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw7283.asp

[TL] Telecom operators strategies for IoT revealed by Analysys Mason, http://www.telecomlead.com/5g/telecoms-operators-strategies-for-iot-revealed-by-analysys-mason-73315

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Why Is 5G Needed?

The reasons why 5G is needed include the following:

The demand for high data speed and large network coverage is continuing to increase [MAM]. Today’s networks are not able to support the expected multi-gigabyte throughput requirements of the next generation services (e.g., VR, AR and 360 video). Early 5G deployments are expected to be driven by eMBB (enhanced Mobile Broadband) and FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) [ER-2].
Mobile data traffic is expected to grow significantly [MAM]. Cisco expects it to grow sevenfold from 2016 to 2021 [Cisco]. So far, the increase in the amount of data sent over mobile networks has been driven mostly by consumer demand for video, and increasing business and consumer use of cloud services. Other data-intensive applications are expected to emerge, such as VR, AR, 360 degree video, holographic transmission, ultra-HD (or even 8K) video and haptic feedback applications. Because of this, we will be needing new capacity in the form of new spectrum, small cells, improvements to the core wireless technologies, and innovation in the mobile network in general [GSA].
Growing M2M/IoT communication in organizations [IA, MAM] and growing number of connected devices [5GF]. Whereas LTE has been driven by rapid increase in the number of devices and dynamic access to information, 5G is expected to be driven largely by IoT applications [Cisco]. 5G has the potential to become a universal enabler for IoT [ALT]. IoT is expected to be the top 5G use case in the long term [IHS]. Various industry applications such as autonomous driving, distant learning, video conferencing, telemedicine and AR will require higher network speed and put considerable demands on the network [IA].
Massive Machine Type Communications (M-MTC or Massive IoT). Some of the massive IoT applications can be handled by LTE networks. However, it is foreseen that there will be a need to be able to handle much larger numbers of connections (i.e., higher device density) efficiently, including handling them in the signaling networks. This creates the need for the development of new networks that can scale more easily [GSA]. 5G will support a connection density of one million devices per square kilometer, which is ten times higher than what LTE supports [EOC].
Critical IoT applications like connected cars, industrial automation and remote surgery will require extreme reliability and extremely low latency from the network. Some of these applications will require step changes in network performance. Their extreme needs cannot be fulfilled even by evolved forms of current networks (that is, LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro) [GSA]. In industrial settings, 5G has the potential to replace specialist networks and dedicated protocols that have been often used to deliver applications, and will bring a lower-cost ubiquitous cellular network and standardized modules and components [GSA].
Limitations of today’s mobile networks regarding high dependency on the mobile core and centralized resource placement, as well as scalability limitations, transport inefficiency and inability to cope with very low latencies [ALT].
Previous mobile network generations lack the flexibility and efficiency to support the broad diversity of use cases (ranging from massive IoT to streaming of VR content from the cloud) and device requirements that 5G is expected to be able to support [ALT].
Verizon has stated that revenue generated from fixed wireless services (FWA) alone justifies the investment required for a 5G network [AM]. The operators who are interested in 5G fixed wireless are those that have not already invested in Next-Generation Access (NGA) sub-loop infrastructure. These include large mobile-first operators, FTTC (Fiber to the Cabinet) incumbents that have not upgraded their physical infrastructure beyond the cabinet, and new entrants. The first main attraction of 5G FWA is the speed at which it can be rolled out. The operator still has to deploy some level of FTTN (Fiber-to-the-Node) but will not have to install the final connections to subscribers or fiber in Multiple Dwelling Units (MDUs). The second main benefit is that the infrastructure built up for 5G fixed wireless makes 5G mobile wireless, which will be introduced later, a manageable incremental cost.
According to IHS, ultra-low latency will be the top 5G upgrade driver, followed by ultra-high bandwidth throughput and increasing network capacity [IHS-2].
Infrastructure for smarty city development is expected to require enhanced mobile network performance capabilities [IA]
77.8% of the respondents to GSMA’s 2017 mobile industry survey expect the first commercial deployment of 5G to have happened in their market at the latest by the end of 2020 [MWL]. The study indicates fast 5G development followed by rapid roll-out. 70.9% of the respondents said that the speed and throughput of 5G are necessary. Only 25.5% felt that the capabilities of LTE are sufficient. Only 3.6% argued that 5G is not necessary.
Ovum believes that 5G will be adopted faster than 4G due to the following reasons [LI]: stronger service provider commitment, larger installed base of 5G devices, fiercer competition among vendors (Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson, ZTE, etc.) that have more experience now than back in the days when 4G was launched, fiercer competition among hardware manufacturers, and larger demand for IoT/M2M applications and services.

References

[5GF] 5G Service Roadmap 2022, http://kani.or.kr/5g/whitepaper/5G%20Service%20Roadmap%202022.pdf

[AM] The investment case for 5G mobile is more distant without fixed wireless, http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Comments/5G-fixed-case-Aug2016-RDTW0-RDCS0/

[Cisco] Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2016–2021 White Paper, http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/mobile-white-paper-c11-520862.html

[EOC] What is 5G NR (5G New Radio)?, http://edge-of-cloud.blogspot.fi/2017/03/what-is-5g-nr-5g-new-radio.html

[ER-2] Ericsson Mobility Report November 2016, https://www.ericsson.com/assets/local/mobility-report/documents/2016/ericsson-mobility-report-november-2016.pdf

[GSA] The Road to 5G: Drivers, Applications, Requirements and Technical Development, http://www.huawei.com/minisite/5g/img/GSA_the_Road_to_5G.pdf

[IA] 5G technology market set to grow from 2016 to 2023 - report finds, http://www.information-age.com/5g-market-expected-grow-123462993/

[IHS] The 5G economy: How 5G technology will contribute to the global economy, https://www.qualcomm.com/documents/ihs-5g-economic-impact-study

[IHS-2] IHS Technology 5G Strategies, Global Service Provider Survey, https://tools.ext.nokia.com/asset/200835

[LI] Ovum forecasts that there will be 24.5 million 5G subscriptions worldwide at the end of 2021 for mobile and fixed broadband services. This compares to 225,000 4G subscriptions at the end of 2010, the second year after the launch of the first 4G network, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5g-adoption-faster-than-any-previous-technology-dimitrios-xydias

[MAM] 5G Technology Market worth 89.0 Million Subscriptions by 2022, http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/5g-technology.asp

[MWL] Mobile World Live, Annual Industry Suvey 2017, https://www.mobileworldlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/19308%20MWL%20Annual%20Survey.pdf

Saturday, April 8, 2017

What is 5G Network Slicing?

If you have been reading as many 5G white papers as I have, you are already familiar with the vision that 5G will be more than a new Radio Access Technology (RAT), that is, 5G New Radio (5G NR), and additional spectrum. This will become true when the industry moves from NR Non-Standalone, which uses existing LTE radio and core network as an anchor for mobility management and coverage while adding a new 5G carrier, to NR Standalone (i.e., “full 5G” including a new 5G core). Besides NR, one of the other key 5G features is network slicing [3GPP-1]. The aim of network slicing is to transform the network from using a rather static one-network-fits-all approach to a dynamic model where multiple logical networks can be created on top of the same physical infrastructure to fulfill the diverse needs of different use cases such as enhanced Mobile BroadBand (eMBB), critical Internet of Things (IoT), and massive IoT.

A network slice is a logical network that includes a set of network functions, which may be Virtual Network Functions (VNFs) or Physical Network Functions (PNFs), and corresponding resources, such as compute, storage, and networking resources. It is sliced out from the physical network in order to provide specific capabilities and characteristics (e.g., customized connectivity with ultra-low latency, extreme reliability, and/or value-added services) that the application running within the slice requires [3GPP-2]. A slice could also be seen as a unique profile for an application, defined as a set of services within the network [WW], or as a network function chain built to support a given use case, traffic type or a customer [ETSI].

The instantiation of a network slice is called a Network Slice Instance (NSI). An NSI is a deployed set of network functions and it delivers network slice services according to a network slice blueprint, which is a description of the structure, configuration and the plans or work flows for how to instantiate and control the Network Slice Instance during its lifecycle [IETF-2, NGMN-2]. NSI is the end-to-end realization of network slicing. The NSI contains access, core, and transport network functions and information relevant to the interconnections between these network functions such as the topology of connections and individual link requirements like Quality of Service (QoS) attributes [3GPP-1].

A slice may serve a particular purpose or a specific category of services (e.g., a specific use case or a specific traffic type) or even individual customers, in which case it may be created on-demand following a Network-as-a-Service (NaaS) approach [3GPP-1].

Each network slice exists within a Software Defined Networking (SDN) overlay [BRO]. Within the slice, a collection of network functions is chained together according to the requirements of the service using the slice [WW, 5GA]. Each slice sharing the same underlying physical infrastructure is a logically separated and isolated system that can be designed with different network architecture, engineering mechanism and network provisioning. When appropriate, slices can share functional components.

Examples of Network Slices

Some examples of network slices and use cases using them include [NGMN, NM, KCF]:

A 5G slice for an Ultra High Definition (UHD) or Virtual Reality (VR) video streaming service could include for example a virtualized BBU (BaseBand Unit) VNF, a 5G core network User Plane (UP) and Control Plane (CP) VNFs, a cache server running as a VNF in the edge cloud, and a Mobile Video Optimization (MVO) server VNF in a central cloud.
A 5G slice for typical eMBB smartphone use (e.g., voice or video calls) could include a virtualized BBU in the edge cloud. The core cloud could include a 5G core UP and CP VNFs (e.g., access management, session management, full mobility management, and charging), and IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) and TCP optimization VNFs running in a central cloud
A 5G slice supporting a critical IoT (e.g., self-driving car) use case is likely to require a high level of security, high level of mobility, extreme reliability, and extremely low latency. For such a slice, all the needed network functions (e.g., 5G core UP and a V2X (Vehicle-to-Everything) server VNFs) and the control software for the self-driving car can be instantiated in a node located at the edge of the network (i.e., in the edge cloud) to meet the very strict latency requirements.
For a network slice supporting a massive IoT use case (e.g., stationary weather sensors infrequently sending small amounts of data), could include a virtualized BBU in the edge cloud. The core cloud could include some basic light-weight 5G core control plane functions (e.g., access management and session management) configured without mobility management features together with contention-based resources for access, and an IoT server VNF.
In addition to the four slices above, there could a generic slice that provides best-effort connectivity for unknown use cases and traffic types

Some of the above-mentioned slices are illustrated in Figure 1 below. More examples of network slicing use cases are available for example in [IETF-6].

Figure 1 – Examples of network slices

As we can observe, all of the use cases above require different types of features and network characteristics when it comes to for example to mobility, charging, security, policy control, latency, reliability, bandwidth, and so forth. Not all use cases will require all of the features that the network is capable of providing. Furthermore, in some cases, the applications will be brought closer to the users to the edge cloud and is some cases the RAN and/or the transport network will require a specific configuration.

Network Slicing Related Technologies

Network slicing leverages multiple different technologies and concepts, including [NOK-1, HW]:

End-to-end management and orchestration – an E2E management and orchestration entity configures the infrastructure layer (which contains all physical resources of the network, including compute, storage and networking), business enablement layer (which includes the network functions), and business application layer (which consists of applications or services of the network operator or tenant) according to the needs of a the application using the slice and supervises them during runtime [5GN]. This includes defining the network slices, chaining together the required VNFs and PNFs and mapping them on the infrastructure equipment. It also includes resource management, scaling the capacity of network functions and managing their geographic distribution. The E2E management and orchestration entity will build on technologies such as NFV, SDN, and SON (Self-Organizing Network). The management and orchestration entity communicates with the OSS/BSS of the network service provider to among other things report status and receive requirements [5GPPP].
Distributed cloud infrastructure, which refers to virtual infrastructure distributed across a mobile network. In the most ambitious visions, nearly any node in the network will be capable of hosting distributed applications and VNFs [ER-5]. This brings applications closer to (or perhaps even into) the RAN and enables optimizing network characteristics like latency and bandwidth.
Service chaining – to support diverse services, the E2E management and orchestration system can orchestrate multiple network and service functions by chaining them together on demand in a specific order to create control plane and data plane graphs [5GPPP].
Cloud-native design, including for example microservices, containers, and a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) in which libraries of network functions can be requested from a VNF catalog and composed into end-to-end service chains on demand [HW]
Network Function Virtualization (NFV) – NFV installs network function software (VNFs), such as MME (Mobility Management Entity), PDN (Public Data Network) Gateway, SGW (Serving Gateway) and PCRF (Policy and Charging Rules Function) in the core network and BBU in the RAN, into Virtual Machines (VMs; or perhaps into containers in a more cloud-native system) deployed on virtualized COTS (Common Off-The-Shelf) servers instead of onto their dedicated network equipment individually [KCR]
Software-Defined Networking (SDN) – SDN provisions the connectivity among VMs or containers located in edge and core clouds [KCR]. An SDN controller configures the service chain of network functions (VNFs) as a logical overlay among them [5GPPP].
Analytics and machine learning are required to make the network slicing process highly automated [NOK]. High levels of automation will be needed since running multiple slices on top of the same physical infrastructure adds complexity to network operations and optimization. Analytics and machine learning will be used to enhance end-to-end management and orchestration (see the first bullet).

End-to-End Network Slicing

A network slice can span all the domains of the network, including [5GA, NGMN, 3GPP-2]:

RAN slicing: for example, a dedicated radio configuration (RAT settings) or specific RAT.
Transport network slicing: for example, a specific configuration of the transport network to support flexible placement of network functions. A network slice includes also the transport resources between the network functions.
Core network slicing: here the slice includes the control plane and user plane network functions and their resources, such as compute, storage, and network resources. In the core network, NFV and SDN virtualize the network elements and functions in each slice to meet the requirements of the user of the slice
Edge cloud and data centers [IETF-3]: slicing covers also applications or VNFs (e.g., a V2X application) running on cloud nodes in an edge cloud (where RAN works as an edge cloud [KCR]) or a central data center
Specific configuration of a 5G device and any dedicated resources that an end-user device allocates to a specific NSI [IETF-2]

More information about RAN, core network and transport network slicing is available in the sections below.

The details of how network slicing will work are still being nailed down. However, it is likely that slice selection will be controlled by the network [HW]. The UE will be able to provide network slice selection assistance information based on policy. The UE may belong to more than one slice on the same RAN and core network.

RAN Slicing

In the RAN, slicing can be built on physical radio resources or on logical resources abstracted from physical radio resources [5GA]. RAN slicing could be implemented by mapping a slice identifier to a set of configuration rules applied to the RAN control plane (i.e., RRC, Radio Resource Control in the case of LTE) and user plane functions, that is PDCP (Packet Data Convergence Protocol), RLC (Radio Link Control), MAC (Medium Access Control) in the case of LTE. Some network functions, such as mobility management, can be common to several slices. There will also be common control functions that coordinate RAN resource usage among the slices.

Radio slices in the RAN may share radio resources (time, frequency, space) and the corresponding communication hardware such as digital baseband processing components or analog radio components [5GA]. The sharing could be done in a dynamic or static manner depending on the network slice’s configuration rules. In case of dynamic sharing, each slice obtains resources based on its demand and priority using either scheduling (the slice requests resources from a central scheduler, which allocates them for example based on the overall traffic load or the priority of the slice) or contention. In the case of static sharing, a slice is pre-configured to operate in a dedicated resource throughout its operation time. Static sharing enables guaranteed resource allocation to the slice, whereas dynamic resource sharing allows overall resource usage optimization.

Slice-specific configuration rules for the control plane functions tailor the RAN control plane functions for each slice. This is because not all slices will require all control plane functions. In the RAN Layer 2 (L2) user plane, each slice may have a configured user plane protocol stack. For example, a slice supporting different QoS classes could be configured to use separate packet segmentation and scheduling layers similar to the RLC (Radio Link Control) and MAC (Medium Access) layers in LTE.

There is also a need for network slice specific admission control so that the system can meet the initial access requirements of various network slices [5GA]. For example, a network slice for critical IoT must get guaranteed low-latency access - consider for instance a slice supporting a remote surgery use case.

The end-to-end network slice also includes the virtualized BaseBand Unit (BBU) - the waveform samples carried in the fronthaul network are processed by a VNF that implements the BBU functions instead of a physical BBU [5GPPP].

How much of the baseband processing is virtualized as VNFs and centralized depends on front-haul availability [NOK] – in some cases, such as with extreme 5G data rates and massive beamforming, CPRI (Common Public Radio Interface, i.e., transmission links between central BBUs and distributed RRHs) fronthaul capacity requirements may be too high and prevent fully centralized baseband processing [ER-6]. Thus, the radio architecture needs to be flexible to cope with different fronthaul deployments. The RAN control plane, is more straightforward to centralize since it does not have extreme bitrate requirements [ER-6]. To enable massive beamforming, the physical layer (PHY) could be distributed closer to the antenna while the upper layers in the stack, that is, MAC, RLC, PDCP, and PHY (physical layer), could be centralized. In fully centralized based deployment, all baseband processing (RAN L1, L2, and L3 protocol layers) is located in a central data center.

Core Network Slicing

The 5G core network (a.k.a., Next-Generation Core, NGC) will be a key element for network slicing since it manages sessions, QoS, security, policy, and so forth [HW]. Network slicing allows core networks to be built in a flexible way [ER-2], tailored to the needs of the application using the slice. SDN and NFV allow traditional network architectures to be broken down into customizable elements (VNFs) that can be chained together programmatically using Service Function Chaining (SFC; a.k.a., service chaining) to provide the required level of connectivity and network functionality. An SDN controller configures service chaining to build a network slice for each user or service [ER-4]. SFC makes it possible to dynamically configure user plane traffic to be routed through a chain of network components which provide value added services [SS].

In LTE, service function chains live in the SGi-LAN [IETF-1], which is the part of the LTE network between the Evolved Packet Core (EPC) and the PDN (Packet Data Network, e.g., Internet) gateway [Int-1]. It is where service providers deploy IP functions such as firewalls, NATs (Network Address Translators), policy and charging enforcement functions, traffic detection functions, CDN (Content Delivery Network) functions, video transparent caching functions, and video optimization functions. In coordination with SDN and NFV, service chaining in the SGi-LAN can be used to optimally steer traffic through selected SGi-LAN network functions.

5G networks are expected to remove the separation between the network service functions that are traditionally placed in the SGi-LAN and the connectivity service, that is, the core network and RAN [NOK]. This allows service chaining to take advantage of edge clouds. Thus, virtualized SGi-LAN functions can be chained together with other VNFs (including the 5G core network VNFs) into a network slice and placed wherever appropriate, including router-based compute blades, COTS x86 servers deployed at the edge, or in central data centers [AF]. The placement decisions are made by a central management and orchestration system.

When it comes to interconnection between core network control plane functions, in addition to traditional point-to-point interfaces (which is the traditional 3GPP architecture that defines functions and interfaces between them), for the core network control plane, 5G is expected to also use a service oriented (cloud-native) model in which components query a Network Function Repository Function (NRF) to discover and communicate with each other [3GPP-3, HW]. The NRF allows libraries of functions to be requested from a VNF catalog and composed into service chains on demand. Using such a service-oriented model, network functions on the control plane can access each other’s services through APIs (Application Programming Interfaces) 3GPP-2].

A 5G device will associate an application with one out of multiple parallel PDU (Packet Data Unit [5GA-2]) sessions, each PDU session corresponding to one core network slice and one RAN slice [IETF-5]. A PDU session is a 5G concept for an association between the device and a data network (e.g., IP or Ethernet). Part of the core network control plane may be common to several slices. One of common control plane functions is the Slice Selection Function (SSF), which is in charge of selecting a core network slice instance. The SSF not specific to any particular network slice [3GPP-3]. Other common control plane network functions can include the Access and Mobility Management Function (AMF), Authentication Function, and NAS (Non-Access Stratum) proxy function. Different slices may also have dedicated core network control plane functions such as the Session Management Function (SMF) which manages PDU sessions. User plane functions are dedicated to each slice.

Transport Network Slicing

In addition to the RAN and core network, also the transport network will play a key role in 5G in enabling flexibility and the ability to address the requirements of the broad range of use cases that 5G will need to support [5GPPP]. To make the transport network programmable and capable of supporting network slicing, SDN and NFV need to be used to separate the control and data planes. This will allow the transport network to dynamically interconnect distributed 5G RAN and core network functions hosted on distributed cloud infrastructure (i.e., the “network cloud”). In general, the 5G transport network will consist of integrated optical and wireless (e.g., mmWave transmission of fronthaul and backhaul) network infrastructure. In 5G transport networks, the fronthaul and backhaul will become one unified IP network known as the 5G Xhaul [EOC].

Programmability will allow the transport network to support the requirements that network slicing brings, including the support for diverse use cases, network sharing, isolation, Service Level Agreement (SLA) fulfillment, short Time-To-Market (TTM), efficient scaling, interconnection of distributed network functions over links that fulfill the required performance levels for bandwidth, delay and availability, etc. SDN-based resource and service orchestration will orchestrate not only the RAN, core, and cloud, but also the transport network, and a 5G network slice will also include the transport layer [ER-1].

Introducing a fully centralized control plane (i.e., full SDN) might be easier for optical transport than packet networks since in legacy optical transport networks, most control functions are already separated from the data plane nodes [ER-1]. In contrast, in legacy packet-switched transport nodes, the two planes are often tightly coupled.

As an example of transport network slicing, Deutsche Telekom (DT) has demonstrated bandwidth based transport network slicing (i.e., slicing based on the bandwidth requirements of applications [Wang]). DT’s transport network consists of T-SDN (Transport SDN) controllers and underlying DWDM (Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing) nodes. The controllers generate a series of specific data forwarding paths based on slice topology and service requirements [TEL].

Network slicing needs to be configured both for the backhaul transport network (between the RAN/edge cloud and the core cloud) and for the fronthaul transport network (between the edge cloud and a RRH at the cell site) [KCR].

Between the edge and core clouds (i.e., backhaul), inter-VM networking is set up with IP/MPLS-SDN (Internet Protocol / Multi-Protocol Label Switching SDN) and T-SDN [KCR]. IP/MPLS networks, as one of the widely deployed mobile transport networks, need to provide the functionality and capability required by network slicing [IETF-4]. The hypervisor of a virtualized server in the core cloud might run a vRouter/vSwitch. The SDN controller does provisioning of the virtualized server Datacenter (DC) Gateway (GW) routers (i.e., Provider Edge (PE) router of MPLS L3 (Layer 3) VPN (Virtual Private Network) installed in the cloud DC) to create SDN tunnels (i.e., MPLS GRE (General Routing Encapsulation), VXLAN (Virtual Extensible Local Area Network)) between each VM in the core cloud (e.g., 5G IoT core) and the DC GW router. The SDN controller then performs mapping between these tunnels and MPLS L3 VPNs (such as an IoT VPN). The process is the same in the edge cloud, creating an IoT slice connecting from the edge cloud to the IP/MPLS backbone, and all the way to core cloud.

Also the fronthaul between the edge cloud and a 5G NR RRH needs to be sliced [KCR]. It is envisioned that the 5G Cloud RAN will use packet-based T-SDN as the fronthaul network to transport both control plane and data plane traffic between RRHs and BBUs [ODL-1]. RRH slicing, which is a new type of RAN sharing, could segment a physical RRH into multiple slices. It could dynamically create a virtual RRH (vRRH) instance using a single or multiple RRH slices, and then associate the vRRH to the BBU requesting it. This means that a novel RRH infrastructure is needed to provide virtualization and programmability of RRH networks for Cloud RAN.

The OpenDaylight open source SDN controller project is working on an OCP (Open Radio Equipment Interface Control & Management Protocol) plugin [ODL-2]. OCP is an ETSI standard protocol for control and management of RRH equipment. The OpenDaylight OCP project addresses the need for a southbound plugin that allows applications and controller services to interact with RRHs using OCP. The addition of the OCP plugin to OpenDaylight will make it possible to build an RRH controller on top of OpenDaylight to centrally manage deployed RRHs and integrate the RRH controller with T-SDN, achieving joint RRH and fronthaul network provisioning in Cloud RAN.

References

[3GPP-1] 3GPP TR 28.801 V1.0.0 (2017-03), Technical Report, 3rd Generation Partnership Project;
Technical Specification Group Services and System Aspects; Telecommunication management; Study on management and orchestration of network slicing for next generation network (Release 14), http://www.3gpp.org/ftp//Specs/archive/28_series/28.801/28801-100.zip

[3GPP-2] 3GPP TS 23.501 V0.3.0 (2017-02), Technical Specification, 3rd Generation Partnership Project; Technical Specification Group Services and System Aspects; System Architecture for the 5G System; Stage 2(Release 15), http://www.3gpp.org/ftp//Specs/archive/23_series/23.501/23501-030.zip

[3GPP-3] 3GPP TR 23.799, Technical Report, 3rd Generation Partnership Project; Study on Architecture for Next Generation System, Release 14, https://portal.3gpp.org/desktopmodules/Specifications/SpecificationDetails.aspx?specificationId=3008

[5GA] Network Slicing for 5G Networks & Services, http://www.5gamericas.org/files/3214/7975/0104/5G_Americas_Network_Slicing_11.21_Final.pdf

[5GA-2] Wireless Technology Evolution towards 5G: 3GPP Release 13 to Release 15 and beyond, http://www.5gamericas.org/files/6814/8718/2308/3GPP_Rel_13_15_Final_to_Upload_2.14.17_AB.pdf

[5GN] 5G NORMA Deliverable D3.1, Functional Network Architecture and Security Requirements,
https://5gnorma.5g-ppp.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/5g_norma_d3-1.pdf

[5GPPP] 5G PPP Architecture Working Group, View on 5G Architecture, https://5g-ppp.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/5G-PPP-5G-Architecture-WP-For-public-consultation.pdf

[AF] Designing 5G-Ready Mobile Core Networks, https://www.affirmednetworks.com/wp-content/themes/renden/pdf/5G_Whitepaper_Heavy_Reading.pdf

[BRO] The Path to 5G with Programmable Mobility Management, https://www.brocade.com/content/dam/common/documents/content-types/whitepaper/brocade-path-to-5g-with-programmable-mobility-management-wp.pdf

[EOC] What is 5G Xhaul, http://edge-of-cloud.blogspot.fi/2017/03/what-is-5g-xhaul.html

[ER-1] Flexibility in 5G Transport Networks: The Key to Meeting the Demand for Connectivity, https://www.ericsson.com/res/thecompany/docs/publications/ericsson_review/2015/etr-5g-transport-networks.pdf

[ER-2] A Vision of the 5G Core: Flexibility for New Business Opportunities, https://www.ericsson.com/res/thecompany/docs/publications/ericsson_review/2016/etr-5G-core-vision.pdf

[ER-3] X-haul, fronthaul and backhaul network research, https://www.ericsson.com/research-blog/5g/x-haul-fronthaul-and-backhaul-network-research/

[ER-4] Why 5G Network Slices? https://www.ericsson.com/spotlight/cloud/blog/2015/02/17/5g-network-slices/

[ER-5] The Programmable Network Cloud, https://www.ericsson.com/res/docs/whitepapers/wp-the-programmable-network-cloud.pdf

[ER-6] Cloud RAN, https://www.ericsson.com/res/docs/whitepapers/wp-cloud-ran.pdf

[ETSI] Next Generation Protocols (NGP); Scenarios Definitions, http://www.etsi.org/deliver/etsi_gs/NGP/001_099/001/01.01.01_60/gs_NGP001v010101p.pdf

[HW] Service-Oriented 5G Core Networks, http://www-file.huawei.com/~/media/CORPORATE/PDF/white%20paper/Heavy%20Reading%20Whitepaper-%20Service-Oriented%205G%20Core%20Networks.pdf

[IETF-1] Service Function Chaining Use Cases in Mobile Networks, https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-ietf-sfc-use-case-mobility-07

[IETF-2] Network Slicing Architecture, draft-geng-netslices-architecture-00, https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-geng-netslices-architecture-00

[IETF-3] Network Slicing - Introductory Document and Revised Problem Statement, draft-gdmb-netslices-intro-and-ps-02, https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-gdmb-netslices-intro-and-ps-02

[IETF-4] Problem Statement of Network Slicing in IP/MPLS Networks, draft-dong-network-slicing-problem-statement-00, https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-dong-network-slicing-problem-statement-00

[IETF-5] Network Slicing - 3GPP Use Case, draft-defoy-netslices-3gpp-network-slicing-00, https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-defoy-netslices-3gpp-network-slicing-00

[IETF-6] Network Slicing Use Cases: Network Customization for Different Services, draft-qin-netslices-use-cases-00, https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-qin-netslices-use-cases-00

[Int-1] Etisalat and Intel Virtualizing the Internet Gateway Gi-LAN for Service Flexibiity, https://builders.intel.com/docs/networkbuilders/Etisalat-and-Intel-virtualizing-the-internet-gateway-Gi-LAN-for-service-flexibility.pdf

[KCR] Korea Communication Review Q4 2015, http://5g.itrc.ac.ir/sites/default/files/korea_communication_review.pdf

[NGMN] NGMN 5G White Paper, https://www.ngmn.org/uploads/media/NGMN_5G_White_Paper_V1_0.pdf

[NGMN-2] NGMN 5G P1 Requirements & Architecture Work Stream End-to-End Architecture Description of Network Slicing Concept by NGMN Alliance, https://www.ngmn.org/uploads/media/160113_Network_Slicing_v1_0.pdf

[NM] E2E Network Slicing - Key 5G technology : What is it? Why do we need it? How do we implement it? http://www.netmanias.com/en/post/blog/8325/5g-iot-network-slicing-sdn-nfv/e2e-network-slicing-key-5g-technology-what-is-it-why-do-we-need-it-how-do-we-implement-it

[NOK] 5G - a System of Systems for a programmable multi-service architecture, http://resources.alcatel-lucent.com/asset/200012

[ODL-1] Project Proposals: OCP Plugin, https://wiki.opendaylight.org/view/Project_Proposals:OCP_Plugin

[ODL-2] OCP Plugin: Main, https://wiki.opendaylight.org/view/OCP_Plugin:Main

[SS] The Road from EPC to 5G, https://www.slideshare.net/AlbertoDiez4/mobile-plots-from-epc-to-5g

[TEL] Deutsche Telekom and Huawei demonstrate world’s first 5G E2E autonomous network slicing, https://www.telekom.com/en/media/media-information/archive/5g-autonomous-network-slicing-demonstrated-444778

[TP] LTE Overview, https://www.tutorialspoint.com/lte/lte_quick_guide.htm

[Wang] An Optimal Slicing Strategy for SDN based Smart Home Network, http://ir.siat.ac.cn:8080/bitstream/172644/6290/1/%E5%8D%97%E6%B2%99%E6%89%80-%E6%99%BA%E6%8E%A72014008.pdf

[WW] Elements of a 5G Core Network, https://www.wirelessweek.com/article/2016/10/elements-5g-core-network

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

How Does a Jitter Buffer Work?

In an earlier blog post, I wrote about the components of motion-to-photon latency in Virtual Reality (VR) systems [EOC]. In most video streaming applications, the dominant latency contributor is buffering at the receiving (decoder) side. This blog post will take a closer look at buffering, focusing on jitter buffers.

In IP networks, jitter refers to the variation in latency on a packet flow between two systems [TT]. Jitter causes some packets to take longer to travel from the sender to the receiver. Jitter results from network congestion, timing drift and route changes. Due to jitter, packets may arrive at the destination late, they may arrive out of order, or may get completely lost if for example buffer overflows occur [Vocal]. In the case of VoIP and video conferencing, jitter can cause audio and video artifacts.

When it comes to jitter, packet loss and latency, QoS requirements and recommendations for VoIP are as follows [Cisco-1]:

Average one-way jitter should be targeted at less than 30ms. Research has shown that voice quality degrades significantly when jitter consistently exceeds 30ms.
Maximum packet loss is 1%
One-way latency (a.k.a., the mouth-to-ear latency) should be no more than 150ms

The ability to compensate for network jitter is one of the key factors impacting the overall quality of VoIP and video conferencing [Vocal]. This compensation is achieved using a jitter buffer. The jitter buffer adds directly to the end-to-end (mouth-to-ear) delay. As an example, a static jitter buffer of 100ms reduces the end-to-end delay budget by 100ms. One the one hand, setting too large a size for the jitter buffer may require the network to support a tighter delay target than may be necessary [Cisco-1]. On the other hand, a jitter buffer too small to accommodate the network jitter can result in buffer underflows (i.e., the buffer is empty when the codec needs to play out a sample) or overflows (i.e. the buffer becomes full and an arriving packet cannot be queued in it). If the jitter is so large that packets are received out of the range of the buffer, the out-of-range packets are discarded and dropouts (clipping) are heard in the audio.

As an example, let’s assume a static jitter buffer set to 100ms. This means that the first voice sample that is received when the jitter buffer is initially empty is held in the buffer for 100ms before it is sent to the codec for playout [Giralt]. A subsequent packet can be delayed as much as 100ms with respect to the first packet without loss of voice continuity. However, if a subsequent packet is delayed more than 100ms, there will be a dropout in the audio (unless packet loss concealment is performed – more about that below). If packets are received on average at a lower rate than the fixed interval at which they are fed to the codec, the codec will eventually starve (i.e., a buffer underflow occurs). When packets arrive at a sufficient average rate, the jitter buffer will always have enough packets to play 100ms of audio before running out of packets. Thus, the variable delay (i.e., jitter) in the network can be up to 100ms without noticeable voice quality degradation.

As another example, if we have a network with a low average delay of 20ms, average jitter of 8ms, and an occasional maximum jitter of 60ms, the size of the jitter buffer should be at least 60ms (or perhaps slightly more) to compensate for the network jitter, and the overall mouth-to-ear delay would be 80ms [Giralt, Kularatna].

As a final example, Linksys devices use a minimum adaptive jitter buffer size of 30ms (or 10ms + current RTP frame size, whichever is larger) [Cisco-3].

A rule of thumb is that if the jitter level is over 100ms, increasing the size of the jitter buffer to avoid packet discards may introduce too large a delay and cause conversational problems (consider the above-mentioned recommend max mouth-to-ear latency of 150ms) [VTS-1]. According to [VTS-2], a typical jitter buffer configuration is 30-50ms in size. In the case of an adaptive jitter buffer, the maximum size may be set to 100-200ms.

Budgeting for jitter accurately (i.e., choosing an appropriate size for the jitter buffer) is difficult due to jitter’s dependency on the traffic mix, traffic burstiness, link utilization, and the nonadditive property of jitter (which means that jitter across a network path does not equal to the sum of jitters across consecutive parts of the path) [Joseph]. The nonadditive property of jitter should not be confused with the impact of several jitter buffers between the sender and the received on the mouth-to-ear latency – if there are for instance two cascaded mixers [RFC 4353] each having a static jitter buffer of 50ms, the total latency introduced by the jitter buffers is 100ms.

Above, static jitter buffers were covered. Many systems use adaptive jitter buffers that dynamically tune the size of the jitter buffer to the lowest acceptable value [Cisco-1] by continuously estimating the network delay and adjusting the playout delay at the beginning of each talkspurt [SS]. Adaptive jitter buffers [Cisco-1]:

Increase the size of the buffer to the current measured jitter value following a buffer overflow
Slowly decrease the buffer size when the measured jitter is less than the current buffer size
Use Packet Loss Concealment (PLC) to incorporate the loss of a packet on a buffer underflow. PLC is a technique used to mask the effects of lost or discarded VoIP packets. One simple method is to replay the latest received sample with increasing attenuation at each repeat. This can conceal the loss of up to 20ms of samples. More sophisticated PLC techniques can conceal up to 30-40ms of loss with tolerable quality.

An adaptive jitter buffer performs the playout adjustment during the silent periods between talkspurts [SS]. The adjustment is done on the first packet of the talkspurt. All packets in the same spurt are scheduled to play out at fixed intervals following the playout of the first packet.

The level at which jitter becomes noticeable depends on the media type. As an example, tolerable video jitter is larger than tolerable audio jitter [Jeffay]. This means that in video conferencing, the buffering delay for video is determined by the size of the audio jitter buffer (in video conferencing, the audio and video need to be synchronized to achieve lip sync). In the audio-video synchronization process, adaptive playout algorithms are performed first, and the video frames are played out on the playout times of their corresponding audio packets (the correspondence is determined by the timestamps of the video and audio packets) [SS]. To enable this, the video frames are stored in a video playout buffer and each frame is delayed until the corresponding audio packets are played out.

References

[Cisco-1] Quality of Service Design Overview, http://www.ciscopress.com/articles/article.asp?p=357102

[Cisco-2] Understanding Jitter in Packet Voice Networks (Cisco IOS Platforms), http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/support/docs/voice/voice-quality/18902-jitter-packet-voice.html

[Cisco-3] What is the jitter buffer value in ms of Linksys devices? https://supportforums.cisco.com/discussion/11128491/what-jitter-buffer-value-ms-linksys-devices

[EOC] The Components of Motion-to-Photon Latency in Virtual Reality Systems, http://edge-of-cloud.blogspot.fi/2016/11/the-components-of-motion-to-photon.html

[Giralt] Giralt, Hallmark and Smith: Troubleshooting Cisco IP Telephony

[Jeffay] Jeffay and Zhang: Readings in Multimedia Computing and Networking

[Joseph] V. Joseph and B. Chapman: Deploying QoS for Cisco IP and Next Generation Networks: The Definitive Guide

[Kularatna] N. Kularatna: Essentials of Modern Telecommunications Systems

[RFC 4353] A Framework for Conferencing with the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP), https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc4353

[SS] Adaptive Playout Buffering for Audio/Video Transmission over the Internet, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/acc0/c0b01e6a49c619c550fee77dea7f1778c518.pdf

[TT] Jitter, http://searchunifiedcommunications.techtarget.com/definition/jitter

[Vocal] Jitter Buffer for Voice over IP, https://www.vocal.com/voip/jitter-buffer-for-voice-over-ip/

[VTS-1] Problem: Jitter, http://www.voiptroubleshooter.com/problems/jitter.html

[VTS-2] Problem: Jitter buffer, http://www.voiptroubleshooter.com/problems/jitterbuffer.html