Technology Trends for 2017 and Beyond from IEEE and Gartner

Back in October 2016, Gartner published its list of top 10 strategic technology trends for 2017 [1]. In December 2016, IEEE Computer Society followed suit by announcing nine technology trends for 2017 [2].

Off the top of my head, I would include at least AI, AR/VR, IoT, blockchain, cloud-native/microservices, web-scale/Software-Defined Everything (SDx), mobile edge computing (MEC), 5G, tactile Internet, and self-driving cars on a technology trends list for 2017. But let’s see what Gartner and IEEE came up with.

Gartner’s trends are grouped into three themes: intelligent, digital, and mesh. “Intelligent” refers to intelligent systems enabled by AI and machine learning. “Digital” is about the border between the digital and physical world starting to blur. Finally, “Mesh” is the dynamic connection of people, processes, things and services that support intelligent digital ecosystems.

Intelligent

• AI and advanced machine learning – technologies such as deep learning, neural networks and natural-language processing (NLP)
• Intelligent apps, including virtual personal assistants but also all other possible intelligent apps ranging from security tooling to enterprise applications such as marketing or ERP infused with AI. Technology providers will initially focus on three areas: advanced analytics, AI-powered and autonomous business processes, and AI-powered conversational interfaces
• Intelligent things – robots, drones, and autonomous vehicles

Digital

• VR and AR – immersive experiences with AR and VR are reaching tipping points in terms of price and capability
• Digital twin – within 3-5 years, billions of things will be represented by digital twins. Digital twins [8] are software models of physical assets that use data from sensors installed on the physical object to represent its real-time status, working condition or position
• Blockchain, that is, the distributed ledger, can transform industry operating models in industries such as music distribution, identity verification and title registry. It could disrupt the way processes like voting, financial transactions and digital rights management are implemented.

Mesh

• Conversational systems, which include for example Siri, Cortana, Google Assistant, Alexa, etc. Conversational systems of the future will be able to adapt to a multitude of forms of requests, and hear and understand complex sentences [9]. They enable people and machines to use multiple modalities (e.g., sight, sound tactile) to communicate across the digital device mesh (i.e., sensors, appliances, IoT systems)
• Mesh app and service architecture – Gartner believes that the “intelligent digital mesh” will require changes to the architecture, technology and tools used to develop solutions. Gartner refers to a Mesh App and Service Architecture (MASA). MASA leverages cloud and serverless computing, containers and microservices as well as APIs and events to deliver modular, flexible, and dynamic solutions.
• Digital technology platforms – Gartner lists five digital technology platforms: information systems, customer experience, analytics and intelligence, IoT and business ecosystems
• Adaptive security architecture – fluid and adaptive security. An adaptive security architecture means having flexible security measures in place to be able to protect an organization’s information [10]. This goes beyond traditional perimeter defense.

Having gone through Gartner’s technology trends, let’s turn to IEEE Computer Society. They predict that the following technology trends will reach adoption in 2017 [2]:

1. Industrial IoT, which will be one of the largest and most impactful arenas for big data analytics in 2017
2. Self-driving cars – broader adoption is likely to first occur in constrained environments such as airports and factories
3. AI, machine learning, and cognitive computing
4. 5G – no wide-scale adoption yet in 2017 as the standards are still work-in-progress, but operators like AT&T will be doing some fixed wireless tests during 2017 [4]. 5G modem chips we will have to wait until 2018 [3].
5. Accelerators – for example heterogeneous computing (i.e., systems that use more than one kind of processor or cores [5]) founded on accelerators (e.g., GPUs) enables the stretching of Moore’s law
6. Disaggregated memory – Fabric-attached nonvolatile memory (NVM) – a disaggregated memory design encapsulates an array of commodity memory modules in a shared memory rack that can be accessed by multiple compute nodes via a shared interconnect [6]. NVM is a type of memory that can retrieve stored information after having been turned off and back on. Fast nonvolatile storage bridges the gap between RAM and SSDs with a performance-cost ratio lying somewhere in between. The technology will enable new applications that are not currently available.
7. Sensors everywhere and edge compute – we will start seeing intelligence and compute being aggressively deployed at the edge
8. Blockchain (see above)
9. Hyper-converged systems (a.k.a., software-defined everything , SDx) are bundles of hardware and software that contain elements of compute, storage and networking together with an orchestration system that lets IT administrators manage them using cloud tools and DevOps practices

Sources

[1] Gartner’s Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017, http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/gartners-top-10-technology-trends-2017/ 

[2] IEEE Computer Society Predicts the Future of Tech for 2017 and Next Five Years, https://www.computer.org/web/pressroom/future-of-tech-2017 

[3] Qualcomm Promises 5G Modem Chip for 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/qualcomm-promises-5g-modem-chip-for-2018-1476810289 

[4] AT&T Plots Mobile 5G Tests in 2017, http://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/atandt-plots-mobile-5g-tests-in-2017/d/d-id/723468 

[5] Heterogeneous computing, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heterogeneous_computing 

[6] Disaggregated Memory for Expansion and Sharing in Blade Servers, http://web.eecs.umich.edu/~twenisch/papers/isca09-disaggregate.pdf 

[7] Non-volatile memory, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-volatile_memory 

[8] Digital Twins, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Twins 

[9] Conversational Systems Will Enable Businesses of the Future to Be ‘Invisibly Present’ Through Time and Space, https://letstalkpayments.com/conversational-systems-will-enable-businesses-of-the-future-to-be-invisibly-present-through-time-and-space/ 

[10] What is Adaptive Security Architecture? https://adaptivesecurityarchitecture247.wordpress.com/2016/04/16/what-is-adaptive-security-architecture-2/ 

Amazon’s Alexa is Doing Pretty Well in the Battle over Voice Recognition

The investment bank Morgan Stanley estimates that 11 million Amazon Echo devices had been sold by the end of November 2016 [1]. In addition, data from the research firm Consumer Intelligence Research Partners shows that 8.2 million US shoppers own an Echo [7]. The Guardian estimates that more than 8% of US households have an Echo device. These numbers are quite significant and seem to imply that standalone voice control devices will have a bright future. Another piece of good news for Echo-like devices is that Gartner has predicted that by 2018, 30% of our interactions with technology will be through conversations with smart machines [2].

Thanks to Amazon having opened Alexa (i.e., the intelligent personal assistant included in Echo) for third-party devices and apps, Alexa is also being used by devices from other companies, such as Huawei’s Mate 9 smartphone, Ford’s F-150 car, and LG’s InstaView smart refrigerator, like I wrote in an earlier post [3]. And according to Wikipedia, there seem to be also a long list of other devices that integrate Alexa [4]. Similar to Amazon, also Microsoft has opened its virtual assistant (Cortana) to third-party devices and apps [5].

The analyst firm Slice Intellligence lists some other signs of Echo approaching a breakout phase in its success [6]:

• 50% of revenue related to Echo comes from women
• Generation X and Baby Boomer consumers are driving a significant amount of Echo purchases
• First-time Echo buyers are no longer necessarily heavy online shoppers

Amazon has promoted the Echo aggressively and has apparently been quite successful in doing so – according to data from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, 82% of Amazon shoppers in the US are aware of Echo.

Google’s response to Alexa is its Google Home voice-only device. Alexa’s growing popularity is most likely a concern for Google since the increasing use of voice-based searches would mean less searches via Goole and thus less ad revenue for the search giant.

Sources

[1] Amazon and Google fight crucial battle over voice recognition, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/22/home-battleground-amazon-google-voice-technology

[2] Market Trends: Voice as a UI on Consumer Devices — What Do Users Want? https://www.gartner.com/doc/3021226/market-trends-voice-ui-consumer

[3] The Buzz around Virtual Assistants, http://edge-of-cloud.blogspot.fi/2017/01/the-buzz-around-virtual-assistants.html

[4] Amazon Alexa, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Alexa

[5] Microsoft to open Cortana virtual assistant to third-party devices and apps, https://techcrunch.com/2016/12/13/microsoft-to-open-cortana-virtual-assistant-to-third-party-devices-and-apps/?ncid=rss

[6] The Amazon Echo is having its mainstream moment, https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/25/the-amazon-echo-is-having-its-mainstream-moment/?ncid=rss

[7] Amazon’s US Echo sales top 8 million, https://www.internetretailer.com/2017/01/23/amazons-us-echo-sales-top-8-million

State of the Cloud Market: the Big Are Growing at the Expense of the Small

Synergy Research Group reports that AWS’s market share of the public cloud services market is over 40% [1]. The three next-largest cloud providers, that is, Microsoft, Google, and IBM are growing at the expense of smaller players and have increased their market share by almost 5% during 2016. Together, they hold 23% of the public IaaS and PaaS market. The market shares are as follows:

• AWS: 40%
• Microsoft, Google, and IBM: 23%
• Next 10 (e.g., Alibaba and Oracle): 19%
• Other cloud providers: 18%

Thus, the big continue to grow at the expense of the small and the (shrinking) 18% that is left for the smaller players means tough competition.

Synergy estimates that quarterly public cloud infrastructure service revenues have reached over $7 billion and continue to grow at almost 50% per year. Adding managed private cloud services on top of that, quarterly cloud revenues are over $9 billion. IBM and Rackspace lead in the managed private cloud space.

According to Synergy, AWS's leadership position requires [1]:

• Huge ongoing investments in infrastructure
• Continued expansion in the range of cloud services offered
• Strong credibility with the large enterprise segment
• Consistently strong execution
• Wholehearted and long-term backing of senior management

Leaders in different cloud segments include [2]:

• Amazon and Microsoft in IaaS & PaaS
• IBM and Rackspace in hosted private cloud
• Microsoft and Salesforce in Enterprise SaaS
• Cisco and Citrix in UCaaS (Unified Communications as-a-Service)
• Cisco and HPE in public cloud infrastructure hardware and software
• HPE and Dell EMC in private cloud infrastructure hardware and software

From Q4 2015 to Q3 2016, total spend on cloud infrastructure hardware and software exceeded $65 billion. Spend on private clouds accounted for over half of the total but spend on public cloud grew much more rapidly. According to IDC, Cisco and Huawei increased their market share in the cloud infrastructure segment, whereas Dell and HPE dropped slightly [3]. Hyperscale datacenters are expected to generate additional growth.

Synergy believes that major barriers to cloud adoption are now almost a thing of the past, especially on the public cloud side [2]. Cloud technologies are generating massive revenues for technology vendors and cloud service providers, and there are still many years of strong growth ahead.

Sources

[1] Microsoft, Google and IBM Public Cloud Surge is at Expense of Smaller Providers, https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/microsoft-google-and-ibm-charge-public-cloud-expense-smaller-providers

[2] 2016 Review Shows $148 billion Cloud Market Growing at 25% Annually, https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/2016-review-shows-148-billion-cloud-market-growing-25-annually

[3] Cisco and Huawei Gained Market Share in Cloud Infrastructure, http://edge-of-cloud.blogspot.fi/2017/01/cisco-and-huawei-gained-market-share-in.html